Cubs odds, picks, prediction: Best bet for Cubs vs Brewers (September 29)
Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.
Moneyline: Cubs (-102) vs. Brewers (-116)
Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+160) vs. Brewers +1.5 (-194)
Total: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-118)
The playoffs commence on Friday for the Chicago Cubs, who are now a half-game out of a wild card position after yielding a sweep to the Atlanta Braves.
The fate of their season narrows to a three-game series against the NL Central-clinched Milwaukee Brewers, and we have Cubs odds, picks and a prediction for the best bet for Cubs vs Brewers on Friday.
The Miami Marlins have one game at-hand on the Cubs since they still need to complete their suspended Thursday game against the Mets due to rain in New York. The Marlins led 2-1 in the ninth inning.
So each of these three games at American Family Field bears some pretty hefty implications for the Cubs. Let’s examine how we can approach the betting board for this tricky series opener for the Cubs on Friday evening.
Kyle Hendricks (6-8, 3.66 ERA) has had a bouncy September on the mound for the Cubs. He’ll assume the mound Friday eight days after a sound outing against Pittsburgh yielding one earned run through six innings; the Cubs bullpen blew the game for an 8-6 defeat.
He sports a 4.03 ERA through his last four starts — three of which at least 13 runs were scored. He’s been able to pitch into the fifth inning, but the relief pitching hasn’t held down the fort.
But this Brewers team has been greater than the sum of its parts. Milwaukee doesn’t present the most potent batting lineup. Christian Yelich leads the team in xSLG and xwOBA and he’s not inside the top 18 percentile in either.
The Brewers as a whole are suspiciously towards the bottom in several metrics, including No. 23 overall in wRC+ at 92; Chicago is No. 12 at 104. Plus, the Cubs veteran has pitched almost flawlessly against the Brewers in two starts this season with a 0.75 ERA and 11 strikeouts through 12 innings.
Colin Rea (6-6, 4.74 ERA) has been optioned back-and-forth to Triple-A Nashville several times this season after a year abroad in Japan. He will start in place of Brandon Woodruff, whom Milwaukee is saving until the postseason.
Rea has been used as a reliever in his last few appearances, but he holds a 5-5 record with an ERA that drifts up to 4.97 in the 21 games he’s started. He’s offering opposing hitters a league-average .327 xwOBA, which presents room for solid contact by a Cubs lineup that ranks eighth in the metric at .326.
This pitching matchup is roughly equal, but the Cubs have everything to lose while the Brewers are clearly looking towards next week with how they’re managing their rotation.
Chicago was swept by the mighty Braves because they blew a couple of leads; they’ve scored at least five runs in seven of their last nine games. Three players have double-digit hits in that span, including Seiya Suzuki, who’s batting .417 since the 14-1 win against Pittsburgh on Sept. 19.
So this isn’t a team that is starving for runs. They’ve scored at the sixth highest rate this season.
I’ll take the veteran pitching and 11th-hour desperation against the make-shift Brewers, who don’t need to further frazzle their pitching staff after a couple wins off a dreadful St. Louis club.
