Cubs vs. Athletics prediction, odds: how we’re factoring the wind into this matchup

We have a Cubs vs. Athletics prediction as Chicago continues its West Coast trip with a visit to the RingCentral Coliseum.

The Cubs have won three straight series with seven wins in their past 10 games. They looked impressive in their series win over the Dodgers while outscoring them 12-6.

As for the Athletics, they’re on a four-game losing streak and have the worst record in the majors at 3-13. Oakland was swept by the Mets and outscored 24-11 in the series. In one game, the Athletics surrendered 17 runs to the Mets.

In this preview, I’ll share why Oakland could be in for another high-scoring affair in this series opener against Chicago.

Moneyline: CHC (-137) vs. OAK (+118)

Spread: CHC -1.5 (+123) vs. OAK +1.5 (-148)

Total: Over 8 (-107) | Under 8 (-113)

ALT total over 7.5 runs (-127)

Cubs — Hayden Wesneski (0-0, 7.50 ERA) vs. Athletics — Kyle Muller (0-0, 5.52 ERA)

This isn’t exactly a matchup of elite pitching when you look at the ERA of Wesneski and Muller. Neither pitcher has particularly distinguished himself, as their inability to miss bats could suggest their struggles are far from over.

FanGraphs lists Wesneski has a below-average Called Plus Swinging Strike Rate (CSW%) of 23.2%. Muller’s numbers are even worse as his CSW% is down to 21.7%.

With numbers this low, you can expect both teams will have opportunities to put the ball into play.

Opposing hitters are making contact on 93.2% of Muller’s pitches inside the strike zone. And given his 4.3 BB/9 ratio, it would behoove the Cubs to exercise some patience at the plate and wait for their preferred pitch.

However, Muller has limited some of the damage by inducing ground balls.

Yet, while his 2.60 GB/FB ratio looks promising to start the season, we’re more likely dealing with a small sample size when you consider his minor league numbers and a career 1.25 GB/FB mark in the majors.

If we turn to Wesneski, his numbers are even more troubling, given that his K/9 ratio is down from 9.00 last year to 6.00 in this campaign.

While his velocity looks good, with an average fastball of 94.7 mph, his command has been so bad that hitters chase only 20.8% of his pitches outside the strike zone.

That means Wesneski has even less room for error, and when he does have to come inside the strike zone with his fastball, opposing hitters are sitting on it. Wesneski’s fastball is -5.9 runs below average compared to last season when it was +3.3.

Based on the numbers, we have two starters who are more fly ball pitchers than anything else. That could be problematic given that our Action Labs Weather Report projects wind gusts up to 12 mph blowing out to right-center field.

Action Labs database shows that Oakland is the home team in this spot; the total is 26-18-2 to the over for 6.39 units. With the current total sitting at eight runs, I’ll avoid a push by buying it down a half-run and playing the over at 7.5 with -127 odds.