Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction

pickdawgz.com

27 July 2023

The Chicago Cubs will play the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of their series on Thursday night at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. These two teams played four games last weekend, with the Cubs winning three out of four. Chicago is currently third in the NL Central, while the Cardinals are fourth.

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 50-51 this season and they have won five games in a row. Chicago is coming off of a mini series win against the White Sox, where they won both games on the road. Chicago won three out of four against the Cardinals and two out of three against Washington in the previous two series. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 496 runs with a .253 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner is batting .280 with seven home runs and 57 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Justin Steele, who is 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 103.2 inning pitched this year.

Cardinals Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are 46-57 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. St. Louis is coming off of a series win against Arizona, where they won two out of three games on the road. St. Louis struggled to keep the Cubs off of the board on Saturday and Sunday, allowing 15 runs in those two losses. The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a .274 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 494 runs with a .258 batting average and a .333 on base percentage this year. Nolan Arenado is batting .287 with 22 home runs and 77 RBI’s for the Cardinals. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Miles Mikolas, who is 6-5 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 126.2 innings pitched this season.

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St. Louis Cardinals Team Facts

The Cardinals have won each of their last six games against the Cubs at Busch Stadium following a win.
The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last five games at Busch Stadium.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three night games between the Cubs and Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

The Cubs have lost eight of their last nine night games against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium following a road win.
The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last four games.
The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games at Busch Stadium against NL Central opponents.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last four night games against National League opponents.
The Cubs have led after 7 innings in each of their last five games.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

Paul Goldschmidt has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Paul Goldschmidt has hit a home run in four of the Cardinals' last seven games against the Cubs at Busch Stadium.
Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one hit in 24 of his last 26 appearances at Busch Stadium.
Willson Contreras has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one RBI in nine of the Cardinals' last 10 night games.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances against the Cardinals.
Justin Steele has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
Cody Bellinger has hit a home run in two of the Cubs' last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances against the Cardinals after playing the previous day.
Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against the Cardinals.
Dansby Swanson has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
Nico Hoerner ranks T6th in the league in Steals (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The St. Louis Cardinals ranks 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.274).
The St. Louis Cardinals are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both home runs and batting average this season.
The Chicago Cubs ranks 5th in the league for steals this season (87).
The Chicago Cubs ranks 25th in the league for doubles this season (152).

Pick

These two teams are third and fourth in the NL Central, but they are separated by quite a few games, with Chicago having the much better record. The Cubs have played very well offensively in their last two series and they will be going against a Cardinals pitching staff that is bottom third in team ERA. St. Louis is starting Miles Mikolas, who has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts (11 IP). Chicago is starting Justin Steele, who has allowed 2, 6, and 3 earned runs in his last three starts. Mikolas allowed five earned runs to Chicago last weekend and I don’t like his chances of being much better here. Take the over.