Daily tennis tips: US Open best bets, betting analysis and accumulators Tuesday September 5

Tennis betting tips: US Open, Tuesday September 5

1pt Jelena Ostapenko to beat Coco Gauff at 2/1 (General)

1pt Novak Djokovic to serve most aces v Taylor Fritz at 2/1 (bet365)

Jelena Ostapenko v Coco Gauff (1700 BST)

Ostapenko will be buzzing after taking out world number one Iga Swiatek in the last round so should she really be 2/1 here?

I guess you never really know what you’ll get from the big-hitting Latvian – she can beat her herself on some days with a large number of unforced errors.

Yet when she finds her groove, the winners flow and as she proved on Sunday night, she’s capable of being anyone.

Gauff shone in the warm-up events but she’s only been doing just enough so far at Flushing Meadows, needing three sets in three of her four matches.

That ‘scenic route’ to the last eight rather cancels out any disadvantage Ostapenko may have had from being taken the distance in every round.

Ostapenko beat the teenager at this year’s Australian Open, 7-5 6-3 the score, and so, as was the case against Swiatek, she’ll go into the match knowing that she’s able to upset the odds again. For the record, the overall head-to-head stands at 1-1, Gauff’s sole win coming in 2019.

Clearly, winning is easier said than done but Ostapenko’s exhilarating brand of tennis means she has, in my opinion, a greater chance of winning this match than odds of 2/1 suggest.

She therefore earns my backing.

Taylor Fritz v Novak Djokovic (after above match)

Day nine brings the first quarter-final which, for punters, means fewer matches but greater depth of markets.

If you followed this column over the years, you’ll know I think the ace and double fault markets often offer up some value and we may be getting some here.

Djokovic has won all seven meetings with Fritz and he’s a hot favourite for this one, despite falling two sets down to Laslo Djere in round three.

Fritz has impressively reached this stage without losing a set but he’ll know this is a completely different test to any that came in the first week and you wonder that, even with his good form, he’ll truly have the belief he can win this one.

He’ll need his serve to be at its best but given the courts aren’t playing very fast, you wonder if that’s a big weapon which is being taken away from him, especially given the level of Djokovic’s returning.

The Serb has broken Fritz at least twice in every meeting and overall he’s won 28 return games across their series, losing his own deal on just 12 occasions.

That stat probably isn’t surprising anyone but one that may is that Djokovic has served the most aces in four of those seven previous meetings.

Clearly he hasn’t had major problems with the Fritz serve in the past and so if he gets a read on it, I think Djokovic’s grater accuracy on a sluggish surface can deliver again.

I’m a little surprised to see him as big as 2/1 for the most aces and that looks worth taking.

Posted at 0830 BST on 05/09/23

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