Daily tennis tips: US Open best bets, betting analysis and accumulators Friday September 1

Tennis betting tips: US Open, Friday September 1

2pts Karolina Muchova to beat Taylor Townsend 2-0 at 13/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Borna Gojo to beat Jiri Vesely from behind (in sets) at 7/2 (bet365)

1pt Bernarda Pera to win a set v Jelena Ostapenko at 6/5 (General)

Borno Gojo v Jiri Vesely

I mentioned Vesely’s record at failing to back up after long matches earlier in the week.

He threw that back in my face a little on Wednesday, although he almost proved me right, blowing a two-set lead against Francisco Cerundolo before winning the decider 7-6.

However, that means there now really is a lot of tennis in his legs. In contrast, Gojo breezed past Mackenzie McDonald in straight sets.

Vesely will know the importance of a good start and focus will be on holding his own serve. That shot is the strength of both men so don’t expect too many break chances.

I could back him again for the opener at 13/8 but I think the better bet this time is to side with Gojo to win after losing the first set at a much bigger 7/2.

I can certainly see the Czech fading due to fatigue if this one goes deep. Hopefully he can get his nose in front first.

The advice is to play bet365’s ‘win from behind’ market which also takes in the possibility of Gojo winning from two sets to one down.

Karolina Muchova v Taylor Townsend

Townsend enjoyed an impressive win over Beatriz Haddad Maia in round two – only the fourth top-20 win of her 10-year career.

But backing up such a high here will likely prove tough.

Muchova, the French Open runner-up, has eased through the first two rounds but what I like most about her chances here is her ability to move Townsend around the court.

She’s full of variety and will get Townsend on the run, somewhere she doesn’t want to be as she’s not the best of movers.

I’ll happily take Muchova to win in straight sets at 13/20.

For those seeking a bigger price, I wouldn’t put you off doubling this up with a 3-0 win for Taylor Fritz – he’s dominated two matches thus far and now faces qualifier Jakub Mensik in the men’s last 32.

However, the smaller price is fine with me.

Jelena Ostapenko v Bernarda Pera

Pera landed us a winner in the last round and can hopefully do so again here as she simply looks too big.

A top price of 4/1 to win the match isn’t giving her the respect she deserves and quite why you’d want to back the notoriously hit-and-miss Ostapenko at 1/6 is hard to fathom.

She produced no fewer than 80 unforced errors in the last round, scraping through against Elina Avanesyan. That took her UE tally for the tournament to 121. She’s also delivered 11 double faults in each match so far.

Those stats hardly suggest she’s striking the ball really well and while we all know that if she does find her groove, her big-hitting game can be devastating, it seems much more likely that we’ll get more of the same against an opponent who will look to frustrate her.

That was certainly the case in their only previous meeting, one which Pera won 6-2 6-1.

While I’m not expecting that again, I think the American is certainly worth backing in some way.

I considered the game handicap in which she gets a 5.5-game start but Ostapenko’s ability to run through several games pretty quickly is what puts me off there.

Instead, I’ll back Pera to win a set at around odds-against. Ostapenko can dig her own holes, as she’s done when helping this bet land in the past two rounds.

In fact, Ostapenko has won only six of her last 23 matches in straight sets and that alone makes odds-against appealing.

Posted at 0840 BST on 01/09/23

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