Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat odds, tips and betting trends

Sportsbook Wire

10 June 2023

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat odds, tips and betting trends

The Denver Nuggets will meet the Miami Heat in a decisive Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets are a 9-point favorite against the Heat when the Nuggets and the Heat meet. The game features a point total of 208.

Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Odds

Spread: Denver -9
Total: 208
Moneyline: Denver -395, Miami +313

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Heat at Nuggets odds, spread, & more

Prediction

Pick ATS: Heat (+ 9)
Pick OU:
Over (208)
Prediction:
Nuggets 115 – Heat 108

Denver has been victorious in 43, or 70.5%, of the 61 contests it has been chosen as favorites in this season.
This year, Denver has won 14 of 18 games when listed as at least -395 or better on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies Denver has a 79.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Miami is 8-16 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 33.3% of those games).
Miami has played as a moneyline underdog of +313 or longer in only one game this season, which it lost.
The implied moneyline probablility in this matchup gives Miami a 24.2% chance to win.

The Nuggets put up six more points per game (115.8) than the Heat give up (109.8).
When Denver scores more than 109.8 points, it is 38-21-2 against the spread and 48-13 overall.
Miami has a 25-33-3 record against the spread and a 38-23 record overall when giving up fewer than 115.8 points.
The Heat average only three fewer points per game (109.5) than the Nuggets allow their opponents to score (112.5).
Miami has put together a 15-14-1 ATS record and a 22-8 overall record in games it scores more than 112.5 points.
Denver has an ATS record of 27-6-1 and a 28-6 record overall when its opponents score fewer than 109.5 points.
The Nuggets are at the 12th spot in the NBA’s scoring charts (115.8 PPG), while the Heat allow the second-fewest points per game (109.8) in the league.
The lowest-scoring NBA team (109.5 PPG) is Miami, while the Denver squad ranks eighth in the league defensively (112.5 PPG).
The Nuggets have put up a total of 273 more points than their opponents this year (an average of 3.3 per game), while the Heat have been out-scored by opponents on average this year (by 26 total points, 0.3 per game).

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The average implied total for Denver this season is 118.2 points, 9.2 more points than its implied total of 109 points in Monday’s game.
This season, Denver has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (109) 63 times.
Miami’s average implied point total on the year (112.4 points) is 12.4 points higher than its implied total in this matchup (100 points).

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