Despite recent injury history, Craig Breslow still a believer in Chris Sale

NASHVILLE — It’s been a while since the Red Sox could depend on Chris Sale.

He hasn’t made 25 or more starts in a season since 2019. He hasn’t had a full season uninterrupted by injury since 2017, his first with the team. And before he provided 20 starts and 102.2 innings last year, Sale had accounted for just 48.1 innings in the three previous seasons combined.

Add all of that up, and factor in that Sale will turn 35 just as the 2024 season gets underway and it’s hard to count on the veteran lefty for much.

Just don’t tell that to Craig Breslow.

On the first full day of baseball’s annual Winter Meetings, Breslow, in assessing his starting rotation, was asked about his expectations for Sale. Could Sale be counted on for 25 or more starts in 2024?

“I don’t know why we would say he shouldn’t, right?” responded Breslow. “He’s as healthy as he’s been (in a while) at this point. I think he has the benefits of a normal ramp-up and a normal offseason. I think he’s probably understanding and we’re understanding how to help him recover and take care of himself.

“I don’t know why I wouldn’t sit here and say we expect a full healthy season.”

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Maybe Sale is due to some better luck, if nothing else.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020 and missing all of that season and half of the next one, Sale returned in 2021 and pitched fairly well over the final six weeks of the season. But 2022 was a disaster even before it began. Sale suffered a cracked rib while ramping up for spring training, sidelining him. When he returned, he took a line drive off his pinky finger in Yankee Stadium in his second start. Then, while working to return late in the year, a bike spill resulted in a broken wrist.

Last year was better. After a slight delay to the start of the season, he began poorly but soon ripped off a string of quality starts. A seven-start stretch from mid-April through the end of May saw Sale go 4-1 with a 2.91 ERA. But he left a start on June 1 with shoulder soreness that would cost him almost two and a half months.

Devastated by another setback, he returned and over his final nine outings of the season, he pitched to a 3.91 ERA. More importantly, he was healthy at the conclusion of the season.

This offseason, he hasn’t had to rehab or start from scratch. Sale is experiencing a normal winter, and that gives Breslow hope.

“We feel really good about where he is right now,” said Breslow. “Speaking to the medical group, the performance group, this is the most optimistic they’ve been. And the value of a full, healthy, normal off-season is huge. He’s throwing off the mound. He feels good about his progress in the offseason. The reality is, when he’s on the mound, he’s a really good major league pitcher.

“We just have to get him on the mound every five days.”

That, of course, has been far easier said than done.

Still to be determined is whether Sale, at 35, can still be a power pitcher. Last year, he averaged 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings, still above average even if it pales in comparison to the 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings he posted in 2018.

In the final two months last season, there were times that Sale’s fastball velocity dipped to 90 mph or less. But with his wipeout slider and changeup, Sale can still fool hitters and induce swing-and-miss.

“As a pitcher evolves,” offered Breslow, “and the stuff starts to regress with age — which is inevitable — it’s up to the group to identify those ways to optimize his pitch usage, his intended locations. And maybe he’s deploying his repertoire a little bit differently. Fortunately, Chris has shown that he’s able to make the adjustments. And I would not want to downplay the pure stuff. It’s still an incredibly unique look with some unique characteristics and traits to his pitches.”

None of that will matter, however, if Sale can’t remain healthy. And for all the optimism that Breslow expressed Monday, he knows that good health has too often been out of Sale’s reach.