Today’s MLB Props Picks & Best Bets
Prop bet #1: Command King
George Kirby has not only been a revelation for the Seattle Mariners starting rotation but he is also baseball’s new command king and he’ll look to keep throwing darts when he takes the mound this afternoon vs. the Kansas City Royals.
You might win a battle with Kirby every now and then, but if you do it’s not because the 25-year-old right-hander gave you a free pass. Kirby has baseball’s best walk rate at just 2.5% and has surrendered just 14 walks over his 23 starts this season.
To put it in perspective, the Oakland A’s are 10 times more likely to win a baseball game this season than Kirby is to issue a walk. Let that sink in.
Kirby also hasn’t allowed a walk in each of his last two starts (16 innings) and I like his chances of keeping that column blank once again today.
For starters, Kirby has been great, pitching to a 3.65 expected ERA and the Royals, well, haven’t. Kansas City ranks 25th in OPS and 26th in wRC+ when facing right-handers this season. On top of that, it looks like they have one of the worst collective batter’s eyes in baseball. The Royals rank 29th in strikeout-to-walk ratio and dead last in walk rate at just 6.5%.
With a big plus-money price tag, it’s worth taking a shot on Kirby to not issue a walk in this matchup. Something he’s accomplished in 11 of his 23 starts this season.
George Kirby prop: Under 0.5 walks (+185 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Pitching to Contact
OK. Patrick Corbin has burned me recently. Despite a horrendous opponent-expected batting average, the embattled Washington Nationals’ starter has only allowed 11 hits over his last three starts. He had allowed seven or more hits in 14 of his previous 21 starts.
Oddsmakers have set the Over 6.5 hits allowed at plus money that is too tempting for me to pass up in today’s matchup against the visiting Boston Red Sox.
Let’s go over this one more time. Corbin is bad. The left-hander’s expected ERA, opponent expected slugging percentage and strikeout rate are all at least in the Bottom %5 among MLB pitchers. And his .312 opponent xBA is the worst in baseball. So, I’m calling shenanigans on his recent run of fewer hits allowed.
The Red Sox have been a more dangerous lineup when facing right-handed pitchers but they are still solid vs. southpaws. Boston ranks 10th in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 16th in wRC+ against righties this season.
The other reason Corbin has been profitable in the hits-allowed market is that his leash isn’t as short as you would think for somebody with numbers like that. The Nats just need innings at this point and that’s something Corbin can provide. He averages 92.8 pitches and 5.72 innings per start this season.
That should mean plenty of opportunities for the Red Sox to rack up the hits tonight and get the "Fade Patrick Corbin" train back on track. But like I said, it’s the plus-money that makes this worth a wager.
Patrick Corbin prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (+130 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Walk in the Park
Things are slowly starting to turn around for Lance Lynn now that he’s a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But the right-hander hasn’t exactly been thrown into the fire with his first three starts in Dodger Blue coming against the Oakland A’s, San Diego Padres, and the Colorado Rockies.
I expect things to get a little tougher when he takes the mound on Thursday night against the visiting, and National League Central-leading, Milwaukee Brewers. This means there is a chance we see an uptick in the free passes handed out by Lynn.
Overall, the numbers for Lynn aren’t great. The veteran starter owns a 4.75 expected ERA and his .459 expected slugging percentage ranks in the 15th percentile.
Now, Lynn’s walk rate isn’t terrible but it’s not great either. However, because Lynn pitches so many innings, his total walk numbers are rather high. Lynn averages 100.2 pitches and 25.3 batters faced per start. So, with a walk rate of 8.1% that works out to 2.04 walks per start.
Tonight, Lynn will face a Brewers lineup that is one of the more patient in the big leagues. Milwaukee ranks fifth in walk rate and ninth in strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball this season. I like them to draw at least a couple of walks in tonight’s matchup and send Lynn Over the 1.5 for his walks allowed prop. Something that has happened in 17 of his 24 starts this season.
Lance Lynn prop: Over 1.5 walks (-130 at bet365)
