Diamondbacks-Phillies NLCS Game 2 preview: Pitching matchups, odds, x-factor, analysis
A long time ago, Tony Gwynn and Greg Maddux sat down and talked ball. It was as fascinating as you might imagine, but the part that always stuck with me was when Maddux talked about the difference between a 1-2 count and a 2-1 count. If you get down in the count, 0-1, it’s not a big deal. But if you get back to a 1-1 count, it’s the next pitch that can effectively decide the at-bat.
It’s not a perfect analogy for what the Diamondbacks are facing, but there are similarities. Go home to Arizona with a split on the road? That’s no problem at all. In fact, it’s almost like reclaiming home-field advantage. Both teams would need to win three more games, but the Diamondbacks would have more at home. They can even win the pennant at home.
Go home to Arizona, down 0-2? A nightmare. Even in a best-case scenario, the series is guaranteed to go back to Philadelphia. In a realistic and optimistic scenario, with the Diamondbacks winning two games out of three, that means they need to take both games back in Philly.
Game 2 of the NLCS is like that 1-1 count, then. Great things are possible. Certain doom is also possible. No pressure.
NLCS Game 2: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Start time: 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Pitching matchup: Merrill Kelly vs. Aaron Nola
Game 2 pitching matchup
Diamondbacks: RHP Merrill Kelly
2023 stats: 12-8, 3.29 ERA, 177 2/3 innings, 187 strikeouts, 1.19 WHIP
The Diamondbacks finally got to start their ace in a Game 1, like a normal postseason team. It didn’t work out, and they lost their first game of the postseason. Evan Longoria had a sound, reasonable perspective after the game, saying, “The reality is we were probably going to lose a game at some point … sometimes it can be a motivating thing to get punched in the face.”
Fair enough. Except guess who might be feeling the pressure of an entire organization to not screw up? That’s right, it’s the next game’s starting pitcher. Have a stinker, and the home crowd moves from raucous to antsy even before the first pitch, especially considering that the Diamondbacks’ Game 3 starter would probably be Brandon Pfaadt, a still-green, still-mercurial rookie. You’ll forgive Merrill Kelly if he’s feeling a little like Roger from this Far Side cartoon.
Of course, that’s not quite fair, as the Diamondbacks’ lineup can also help out a great deal, but that’s a collection of nine individual players. Kelly is on an island, and the sharks that are circling him are all hopped up on Wawa sandwiches.
The good news for the Diamondbacks: Kelly has been pitching extremely well recently, allowing just four total runs over his last four starts, spanning 25 innings and including a postseason start in Dodger Stadium. If the Phillies plan was to ambush Gallen, a pitcher with exceptional command, Kelly should be ready to adjust.
Phillies: RHP Aaron Nola
2023 stats: 12-9, 4.46 ERA, 193 2/3 innings, 202 strikeouts, 1.15 WHIP
Your eyes might be drawn to the ERA, like it’s 1988 and you’re looking at the back of a baseball card. I can’t blame you. It catches the eye. It’s the ERA of the ace starter on the 1998 Rangers, not someone you should be excited about in 2023.
Except Nola has been much, much better in recent months. And as long as we’re looking at the back of a baseball card, consider this: Nola has started 11 games for the Phillies since Aug. 4, and the Phillies have won 10 of them, including two postseason games.
When Nola is on the mound, the Phillies aren’t quietly assuring themselves that, actually, his FIP is much better than his ERA, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is still enviable, and home-run rates are so fickle from year to year, so there are reasons for optimism. They’re pointing at the mound and saying, “See that guy? That’s Aaron Nola. We win when he pitches.”
He can still allow the occasional dinger, though, which isn’t uncommon for a pitcher who fills up the strike zone. See, for example, Zac Gallen on Monday night. If the Phillies’ plan was to ambush Gallen, the Diamondbacks might consider a similar approach.
Game 2 X-factor
Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning
It’s been almost a full month since Kimbrel had to pitch on zero days rest. The last few times he did it, there were some sketchier outings sprinkled in. Causation isn’t correlation, but it’s at least something to consider. The scheduled off-days of the early postseason aren’t always a great way to prepare for the LCS.
Notable Quotable
(Top photo of Kelly: Harry How / Getty Images)
