Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 2 predictions and prop bet
Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.
Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+136) vs. Phillies (-162)
Spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110) vs. Phillies -1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
It’s merely senseless to focus the spotlight on any one player on the Philadelphia Phillies right now.
They’re collectively bullying their way through the postseason.
Monday night was textbook baseball at Citizen Bank Park. The Phils carried inertia over from the NLDS by attacking Zac Gallen early in the count; Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper blasted back-to-back home runs off the first five pitches.
All while Zach Wheeler recorded 15 consecutive outs having mixed in eight strikeouts through the first six innings. Philadelphia surged out to 5-0 before Arizona could blink.
The Phillies face Merrill Kelly for Game 2 as they start Aaron Nola, who has been magnificent through his two postseason starts (2-0, 1.42 ERA).
We will identify which prop offers worthwhile value in the Phillies lineup against Kelly for Game 2 on Tuesday.
Kelly’s saw Philadelphia once back in mid-June and allowed three earned runs off three hits, but whiffed seven hitters.
Bryce Harper is 1-for-5 against Kelly in his career, but I don’t think that translates to this postseason, Citizen Bank Park or the high the Phillies are on right now. Baseball gods can be random and the Phillies are being rewarded for their aggressive bats at this moment.
Harper has at least one hit in six of seven postseason games — four of those going over the fence. He’s hitting .409 in 30 plate appearances, is averaging an RBI in each game and has reached home base nine times.
Kelly was nearly flawless in his start against the Dodgers — striking out five and allowing zero earned runs. Even so, the metrics he capped the regular season with do suggest that regression is on the rise; his xERA (4.13) is almost an entire run higher than his ERA (3.29).
The Phillies are hitting .287 against right handers in their own park this postseason. Bryce Harper is hitting .600 against them. He also has a monstrous on base plus slugging of 1.521, which is second amongst postseason hitters.
Kelly has six pitches in his arsenal in which he mostly relies of the four-seam fastball, changeup and cutter. But Harper hits all of those above the league average.
I expect the Phillies to establish comfort by continuing to attack the count and shaking up an inexperienced postseason pitcher with home crowd energy behind them.
FanDuel is offering Harper to record 2+ bases at +120 at the time of this writing. I recommend pouncing on plus-money value behind the playoffs’ best player.
Harper to record 2+ bases (+120 at FanDuel)
