Dominican Republic vs Venezuela World Baseball Picks & Odds

Venezuela has bats, but hitting off Sandy Alcantara is never an easy ask. It's just part of the reason why our baseball picks are backing the Dominican Republic to live up to its billing in the World Baseball Classic.

After six years of waiting, the World Baseball Classic is finally back and underway. The Dominican Republic possesses one of the best pitching rosters in the WBC, and will look to ride that strength in their opening Pool D game against Venezuela behind NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. However, Venezuela boasts an impressive list of hitters which includes names like Jose Altuve, Salvador Perez, and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Will Alcantara and the rest of Dominican Republic's arms set the tone in the opening game for the odds-on WBC favorites or will Venezuela's bats make some noise and provide Group D with a massive upset?

betting picks and predictions for the Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela matchup on Saturday, March 11th.

Dominican Republic vs Venezuela odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Dominican Republic vs Venezuela picks and predictions

The Dominican Republic has been the talk of the World Baseball Classic when it comes to pitching talent and depth, and having reigning Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara pitch in its opening game is the shining example of that. Last year's 27-year-old breakout stud notched a 2.28 ERA, 0.980 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts across a league-leading 228.2 innings pitched, earning himself the aforementioned National League Cy Young award on top of finishing 10th in NL MVP voting. 

It isn't just Sandy and their starting arms that give the DR its pitching strength, it's also their bullpen. Rafael Montero (2.37 ERA), Camilo Duval (2.53 ERA), and Bryan Abreu (1.94 ERA) headline a bullpen chock full of talent and depth, and will give the WBC (a typically hitter-friendly competition) a good run for their money.

Alcantara and his supporting cast will have their hands full with Venezuela's lineup on Saturday night, which is full of some of the MLB's best. That includes the likes of three-time All-Star Ronald Acuna Jr, former MVP and two-time World Series winner Jose Altuve, and five-time Silver Slugger and former World Series MVP Salvador Perez. And, of course, you can't forget designated hitter and team manager Nelson Cruz.

That isn't to say that the Dominican Republic isn't also filled to the brim with batting talent. Its potential starting lineup includes the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Wander Franco, Jeremy Pena, and more.

Those hitters will face off against Martin Perez, who is coming off a career year in 2022. Perez in his 11th season notched a career-best 2.89 ERA and 1.258 WHIP while notching the second-most innings pitched in a season in his career. As a result, he was rewarded with his first-ever All-Star nomination.

And while Perez and Venezuela's lineup are more than formidable (they are frequently around fourth in odds to win the World Baseball Classic), the Dominican Republic is simply on an entirely different level across the entirety of these two teams' rosters.

My best bet: Dominican Republic -2.5 (-135 at bet365)

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Dominican Republic vs Venezuela moneyline analysis

While Perez's breakthrough last year was incredibly admirable, there were still plenty of red flags across his advanced metrics profile.

While he was great at limiting barreled balls (92nd percentile) and hard-hit percentage (73rd), he ranked rather poorly in getting batters to whiff (15th percentile) and chase (28th) leading to a mediocre strikeout rate (34th). He also leaned on his fastball 43% of the time, but posted just 23rd percentile velocity and 15th percentile spin on it.

His counterpart on the mound Saturday night, converselym had a stellar advanced profile. His fastball velocity finished in the 96th percentile despite his (unique by today's standards) ability to go long.

He was also fantastic at getting batters to chase balls outside of the zone (94th percentile) while also managing a high-end walk rate (82nd percentile), an incredibly hard feat to achieve. His ability to limit barreled balls (81st percentile) and keep contact soft was the icing on the cake.

That type of disparity alone more than justifies the pricing discrepancy for this Group D matchup, but there is more to chew on. While Venezuela may have Acuna (5.0 projected WAR according to Fangraphs' ZiPS projections), Altuve (4.8), and Perez (3.2), Dominican Republic's lineup trounces it.

Juan Soto (6.5 projected WAR), Julio Rodriguez (5.4), and Rafael Devers (5.3) all rank above Venezuela's best player (Acuna) while having the likes of Manny Machado (4.8), Wander Franco (3.6), Jeremy Pena (3.4), and more behind them.

Dominican Republic vs Venezuela Over/Under analysis

There is an argument here that, given the Dominican's batting talent and Martin Perez's concerning advanced profile, that the DR could realistically hit the total on its own, or at the very least do the majority of the heavy lifting in that regard.

Given Alcantara's incredible proficiency on top of the literal world-class bullpen behind him, Venezuela may struggle to contribute to the run total.

The World Baseball Classic tends to be a higher-scoring run environment and the games in recent days have been no exception to that. At the time of this writing, eight of the last nine games had seen run totals of nine or more. On top of that, six of those nine games had 13 or more runs.

Dominican Republic vs Venezuela game info

Dominican Republic vs Venezuela starting pitchers

Sandy Alcantara: Alcantara was arguably the biggest breakout pitcher of the 2022 season, taking home the National League Cy Young award after notching a sterling 2.28 ERA and 0.980 WHIP. He also struck out 207 batters and showed the unique ability to go long often, racking up a league-high 228.2 innings.

Martin Perez: Perez is an eleven-year vet who was a league-average pitcher at best until his breakthrough performance last year, notching career-bests in both ERA (2.89) and WHIP (1.258). The lefty noticeably notched a 92nd percentile finish in barrel rate and 73rd percentile finish in hard hit percentage.