Israel vs. Dominican Republic: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions

Israel vs. Dominican Republic Odds

Tonight, Israel and the Dominican Republic will meet at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, with each team playing their third pool play contest of the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Both teams enter action this evening 1-1, but oddsmakers still have the Dominican Republic priced as heavy 6.5 run favorites on the spread in this matchup, with over/under on the total set at 11.5 runs.

Israel

Steinmetz gets the start

Jacob Steinmetz will get the ball for Israel to begin Tuesday’s affair. Steinmetz was a third round draft pick in 2021 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, but struggled to a 7.88 ERA and a 5.55 FIP in 24.0 innings of work in 2022 at 18 years old.

In a limited sample size, Steinmetz was extremely poor against both left- and right-handed batters, with a 2.10 WHIP against lefties and a 1.98 WHIP against righties in rookie ball. Facing a dangerous Dominican Republic lineup, he could be in danger right from the first pitch he throws in this matchup.

What to expect from Israel’s offense

As of this writing, Israel ranks 20th out of 20 teams in the World Baseball Classic in OPS, which is the number one correlate for runs scored in baseball games. In 54 at-bats, the team has posted a dreadful .130 batting average, with zero home runs and only two total extra-base hits. It is difficult to see this output changing much on Tuesday.

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Dominican Republic

Contreras gets the ball

Roansy Contreras, a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, has some of the most electric stuff of any young hurler in the world at only 22 years old.

In 34.1 innings of work at Triple A last year, Contreras had a 3.15 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 32.6% strikeout percentage, 9.2% walk rate, and a 1.22 WHIP. Following his promotion to the big leagues, Contreras saw his strikeout percentage plummet to 21.1%, but he remained solid across the board in his run prevention metrics, with a 3.79 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and a 1.27 WHIP.

Expect him to throw the ball well in the early portion of this contest.

What to expect from the Dominican Republic lineup

Through two games, the Dominican Republic ranks 14th out of 20 teams in OPS. Against Nicaragua, they scored six runs in a winning effort, following a 1-run performance against Venezuela to open the tournament.

There is no shortage of star power in the lineup for this group, with Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Wander Franco, and other big names. However, this group has yet to put it all together so far in pool play.

Israel vs. Dominican Republic – Picks & Predictions

To date, both of the Dominican Republic’s pool play contests have resulted in seven or fewer runs put on the board. Israel’s first game resulted in four total runs against Nicaragua. Their second game, facing Puerto Rico, resulted in 10 runs in a 10-0 defeat.

Simply, the Dominican Republic is the far more talented team in this matchup, but their bats have yet to do the damage that many people expected in this tournament. Playing in a pitcher-friendly venue, the under is once again the smart lean, in a game featuring two offenses that have struggled to do much of anything productive so far in pool play.

PICK: Under 11.5 (-105, DraftKings)