College Basketball: Atlantic Coast Conference

Duke vs. Virginia ACC Odds, Picks, Predictions: Blue Devils Favored in Title Game

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11 March 2023

Duke vs. Virginia ACC Odds, Picks, Predictions: Blue Devils Favored in Title Game

The Duke Blue Devils have won eight in a row heading into Saturday’s matchup with the Virginia Cavaliers. Here are the best Duke vs. Virginia college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

The Blue Devils have been on a tear of late, winning eight consecutive games. This streak has included victories over likely tournament teams in the NC State Wolfpack, the Pittsburgh Panthers, and the ACC regular season co-champion Miami Hurricanes.

The last team to beat the Blue Devils was Virginia. Back on Feb. 11, the two teams played a thriller in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers came away with a 69-62 overtime win, but the game was filled with controversy, and the ACC all but admitted that the Blue Devils should have won the game in regulation.

Here is our best Duke vs. Virginia pick for Saturday's ACC championship game (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Duke vs. Virginia odds

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When making your college basketball best bets for Saturday, you may first want to consider the Blue Devils, as they are red-hot right now. However, they are the more public team in this matchup and the modest favorites by Saturday's conference championship odds. They just took down the top team in the ACC in a thrilling game, and they are essentially playing a home game in Greensboro. But for everything that the Blue Devils have done right, this feels like a trap line from oddsmakers.

The impact of Miami Hurricanes forward Norchad Omier going out in the first minute of last night’s game cannot be understated. Without him, the Hurricanes could not rebound, and Duke’s two 7-footers, Kyle Filipowski, and Dereck Lively II were able to do whatever they wanted all game long. And yet, the Blue Devils could not pull away from the shorthanded Canes.

The Cavaliers have no such size problems, and they are one of the most fundamentally sound teams in college basketball. Though they had a rough stretch in late February, they have righted the ship and won four games in a row. They blew out a desperate Clemson Tigers team Friday, the day after beating a desperate North Carolina Tar Heels squad.

The Cavaliers have the sixth-best scoring defense in the country, and that is going to give the Blue Devils’ offense fits Saturday night. The Blue Devils may win this game, but there is no reason that they should be favored in this contest.

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Duke vs. Virginia best odds

FanDuel (-104)

The only major sports betting site not offering this line at +2.5 is DraftKings. They are offering the Cavaliers as 3-point underdogs for a price of -110. Normally, we would take this number cause it’s the best, but we’re going to recommend taking FanDuel because of the price.

At nearly even money, FanDuel is offering Virginia at +2.5. We genuinely believe that the Cavaliers should be able to win this game outright, so we have no problem giving up the half-point in order to get more favorable odds. Get in soon though, because it won’t be long before all of these books are showing Virginia at +3.

Duke vs. Virginia odds analysis

The Blue Devils opened as 2.5-point favorites, and they have seen all the love early. More than 60% of wagers have come in on the Blue Devils, which has moved this line to three points at DraftKings. While the line hasn’t moved elsewhere, the price has changed. Duke was initially laying 2.5 points at -105 odds, but the Blue Devils are now -115 or better everywhere except PointsBet.

The total opened at 123.5, which is not shocking considering Virginia will be on the floor. Despite 70% of wagers backing the Over, the total has either stayed put or dropped at each of the five major sportsbooks. Expect this number to keep going down before tipoff, no matter what the betting public says.