Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda prediction, odds, pick for UFC Mexico City

The UFC Prelims are rolling on from Arena CDMX in Mexico City as we bring you our betting prediction and pick for this next matchup in the Flyweight (125) Division. Mexico's own Edgar Chairez will square off against Brazil's Daniel Lacerda as the two fighters rematch from their last ‘No Contest' bout.

Edgar Chairez (10-5) has gone 0-1-1 so far in the UFC. His debut came against Tatsuro Taira and while he performed well, it proved to be too big of a test too soon. His following fight at UFC Noche was ruled a ‘No Contest' after referee Keith Peterson prematurely called the fight. Chairez was in clear control in that one, so it's no surprise he comes in as the big betting favorite. He stands 5'7″ with a 71-inch reach.

Daniel Lacerda (11-5) has gone 0-4-1 in the UFC since 2021 and is desperately searching for his first win under the promotion. His stint hasn't been too pretty and his last fight was stopped prematurely when the ref claimed to have seen Lacerda's arm go limp during a guillotine choke. However, upon the stoppage, Lacerda was fully conscious and the fight was ruled a ‘No Contest'. Lacerda stands 5'6″ with a 70-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC Mexico City Odds: Edgar Chairez-Daniel Lacerda Odds

Edgar Chairez: +400

Daniel Lacerda: -525

Over 1.5 rounds: +175

Under 1.5 rounds: -215

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Why Edgar ChairezWill Win

Edgar Chairez comes in with his lowest betting odds in this third scheduled bout against Daniel Lacerda. The first meeting between the two was notoriously stopped prematurely, but it was no question that Edgar Chairez was getting the best of Lacerda. This time around, he'll be an even bigger favorite looking for the same finishing result. He's a prototypical Mexican fighter and constantly marches forward with his crisp boxing combinations. He's also a menace with his jab, so expect him to go back to what worked for him in the first meeting.

While he still needs to improve on his defense a bit, Chairez is extremely tough and doesn't seem too fazed when getting hit in the pocket. This fight being held in Mexico City will be a huge motivational boost for him as he tries to make his home country proud. He's not too much of an emotional fighter, but expect him to fight with an extra gear in front of these fans. If he can stay composed and fight with his guard high per usual, he should be able to validate his original win.

Why Daniel Lacerda Will Win

Daniel Lacerda was faring well until he was caught in Chairez' standing guillotine, but the premature stoppage proved Lacerda still had a lot of fight left in him. He will now have a better idea of what kind of looks Chairez will throw at him given their short time in the cage together already. He saw his more patient approach pay off to an extent, so he should look to come in with a similar mindset to this fight.

Typically Lacerda is very sound when it comes to the grappling, but he'll have to be extra cautious this time around as Chairez may go for a similar type of finish. Still, if Lacerda can stay calm and clean during the striking exchanges and clinch, he could have a solid chance to upset in this fight. The leg kicks were a big point of emphasis for Chairez, so expect Lacerda to check some of these and give him a harder time with some kicks of his own.

Garrett Kerman ·

Dominik Zawartko ·

Dominik Zawartko ·

Final Edgar Chairez-Daniel LacerdaPrediction & Pick

As far as the first meeting between these two goes, it was all Edgar Chairez all the way. He remained patient in the opening stages of the fight and only attacked when he saw the perfect opening. While we give the sizable edge to Edgar Chairez in this rematch, these betting odds ought to be a lot closer given the fact Daniel Lacerda wasn't really in too much danger when their last fight was stopped.

Still, there's something to be made of Lacerda's last weight miss and his general issues cutting weight, so we don't see many scenarios where he comes into this a completely different fighter. His one chance will be to break through Chairez' guard with a combination and find his chin.

Otherwise, we like Edgar Chairez to pick up another win. He's ultra-consistent in the way he fights and his sound defense should serve him well once again.

Final Edgar Chairez-Daniel LacerdaPrediction & Pick: Edgar Chairez (-525), Over 1.5 Rounds (+175)