Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson Pick, 9/16/2023 Predictions Noche UFC Odds

Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson

Noche UFC

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Fernando Padilla will enter the Octagon with Kyle Nelson at Noche UFC on Saturday, September 16, 2023. The opener has Padilla priced at -258 while Nelson is coming in at +210.

Fernando "El Valiente" Padilla looks to add a victory to his total of 15-4-0. The 26-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and comes in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 76". Kyle "The Monster" Nelson comes in at 5'11" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 14-5-1. The 32-year-old has a reach of 71". Concerning significant strikes, Fernando Padilla lands 11.88 per minute while Kyle Nelson lands 3.06 significant strikes per minute. Padilla lands 68% of the significant strikes he throws and Nelson lands 45%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "El Valiente" takes 8.91 significant strikes per min and "The Monster" absorbs 4.52. Padilla also deflects 37% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Nelson prevents 48% of the strikes thrown his way.

Regarding takedowns, Fernando Padilla is the not as competent as a wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 0.40 times per 15 min. Padilla is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of his attempts and defending 85% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Nelson is finishing his takedown tries on 22% of his takedown tries and thwarting 71% of the tries against him. Regarding subbing the opposition, Padilla is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.4 submissions per 15 minutes while Nelson attempts 0.8 submissions per 3 rds.

The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Fernando Padilla fought Julian Erosa and wound up getting the win by a punch to the head in round 1. Erosa ended up landing 15 of 24 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Padilla finished this fight landing 20 of 29 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Erosa ended up landing 15 of 24, which means his percentage was 62%. He landed 9 of 18 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Padilla landed 68% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 20 of 29. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 17 of 25 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Erosa and 95% of them connected on by Padilla were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Kyle Nelson, he battled Blake Bilder and ended up getting the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Bilder ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Nelson ended up connecting on 96% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Nelson landed 46% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 59 of 126. He landed 24 of 76 significant strikes to the head. Bilder landed 45 of 120 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 26 of 96 directed at the head. Regarding the total strikes thrown in this fight, Bilder was 84 of 159 while Nelson ended up landing 83 of 150 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Roman Kopylov meets Josh Fremd. Kopylov comes into this fight with a mark of 11-2-0. The 32-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'0". The southpaw fighter reaches 75". Fremd stands 6'4" and steps on the scale at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 11-4-0. The 29-year-old reaches 76". When it comes to grappling, Roman Kopylov is averaging a takedown 0.56 times per 3 rds while Josh Fremd is averaging a takedown 1.03 times per 3 rounds. In the striking category, Kopylov is connecting on 4.66 strikes/minute and landing 52% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Josh Fremd, who is connecting on 47% of his attempted strikes and is connecting on 2.72 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Daniel Lacerda is set to square up in the Octagon against Edgar Chairez. Chairez has a career record of 10-5-0. The 27-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and stands 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Lacerda stands in at 5'6" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 11-5-0. The 27-year-old reaches 70". Concerning grappling, Edgar Chairez is able to stop 44% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of the times he tries. Lacerda is finishing his takedown tries on 40% of the attempts he tries and is able to stop 15% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With regard to striking, Chairez is taking 4.67 strikes/min and he dishes out 2.53 per minute. Lacerda, on the other side, absorbs 9.76 strikes per min and is landing 4.75 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Kyle Nelson (+210)

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