English Championship: Projections, Best Bets for Huddersfield vs Reading, Millwall vs Blackburn

It’s the final day of the regular season in the second division of English football and two promotional playoff spots are still up for grabs.

Burnley and Sheffield United have already punched their tickets to the Premier League, and Luton Town and Middlesbrough have already locked up a spot in the Promotional playoffs. However, Coventry City, Millwall, Sunderland, West Brom and Blackburn are all still vying for the final two playoff spots.

If you’d like to see my projections for the Championship, along with Premier League and numerous other league around Europe, you can find them here.

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English Championship

Projections

Huddersfield vs. Reading

Huddersfield pulled 74-year-old Neil Warnock out of retirement to help save the club from relegation into Ligue 1 — and he achieved just that. In 14 matches in charge, the club picked up 22 points with six wins. However, they have drastically overperformed under Warnock as they’ve won the expected goals battle just one time.

It’s such drastic overperformance that you are seeing them priced based on their actual form against a team that is already relegated. Huddersfield may only have a -3 actual goal differential under Warnock, but their expected goal differential has been -10 in those 14 matches. Overall for the season, Huddersfield has allowed the third-most shots per 90 minutes, the most penalty box entries and the most goals from open play.

Reading, on the other hand, has underachieved this season with their actual goal differential being -20. Their expected goal differential is -17.5, which is better than Huddersfield for the season. The also pounded Huddersfield in their previous meeting (3-1) and beat them on xG 1.7 to 0.7.

With two teams basically even on expected goals and both having nothing to play for other than pride, Huddersfield is drastically overvalued here.

I only have Huddersfield projected at +154, so I like the value on Reading +0.5 at -124 (BetRivers).

Pick: Reading +0.5 (-124)

Millwall vs. Blackburn

This is the biggest match on Monday as both Millwall and Blackburn need a win to get a playoff spot. That has caused an inflated total between a top-five defense and a bottom-five offense.

Defense is the reason Millwall is in position for a playoff spot. They have only allowed 45.8 expected goals in 45 matches and are set in a style conducive to low-event matches. They play one of the most popular formations in football (4-2-3-1), but they are actually a more direct-style team with the fourth-lowest passes per sequence. Their direct speed is only around the Championship average.

Millwall’s matches only average 2.26 xG per match as the pace is usually pretty slow. They are one the best teams in the Championship at defending their penalty area, only allowing only 9.1 box entries per 90 minutes.

Millwall’s offense is almost entirely built on set pieces, as they’ve scored a Championship-best 23 this season. But they’ve only scored 26 from open play, which is third lowest in the Championship.

Blackburn has vastly overachieved this season and their offense has actually been one of the worst in the Championship. They have only averaged 0.95 npxG per 90 minutes, which was fifth worst in the Championship. The offense is built on low-quality chances as they have the lowest xG per shot, the longest average shot distance and have taken the fewest shots from inside in the Championship. Not good news when you are facing a top-five defense that is as good as Millwall is out of possession.

Defensively, Blackburn hasn’t been that bad, allowing only 1.16 xG per 90 minutes, which is 11th in the Championship.

I only have 2.05 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Under 2.5 goals at -108 (BetRivers).