Football news 2023: EFL Championship play-offs, final day, fixtures, scenarios, Coventry City, Millwall, Sunderland, West Bromwich Albion, Blackburn Rovers, latest, updates
The final day of the Championship is upon us and for fans of five teams towards the top of the table, it promises to be one of the most excruciating days of their existence.
Just three points separates Coventry City in fifth place and Blackburn Rovers in ninth, as the race to make the play-offs goes down to the wire.
You can bet your bottom dollar those same supporters will be furiously tuning their radios to hear how their play-off rivals are getting on or giving their thumb an all-time workout by refreshing the scores on their mobiles.
For those unfamiliar with the Championship, the teams who finish third, fourth, fifth and sixth all qualify for the play-offs as they battle it out for the final promotion spot to the Premier League.
The team who finishes third will take on the team that comes sixth, leaving fourth and fifth to battle it out over a two-legged fixture.
The winners of those games will then go on to contest the play-off final at the iconic Wembley Stadium in a match dubbed the richest game in football given the financial windfall headed their way via the Premier League.
Third and fourth place in the Championship this season has already been locked in by Luton Town and Middlesbrough respectively, leaving a five-way tussle for the final two spots.
Foxsports.com.au takes a look at the five teams jostling to make the play-offs and gives their verdict on who will make the cut and who will have to park their Premier League ambitions for another season.
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5TH: COVENTRY CITY, 69 PTS, +12 GD
Final day fixture: Middlesbrough (a)
Coventry City have picked the perfect time to hit their stride.
Since a 4-0 loss to Swansea City on April 1, Mark Robins’ side are undefeated in six games with three wins and three draws.
Given every team in the play-off hunt seems to slip up at strange moments, Coventry have happily taken advantage of their rivals’ missteps.
Some will point to a 95th-minute equaliser from goalkeeper Ben Wilson in a 1-1 draw against Blackburn as a sign that Coventry are destined to make the play-offs given the absurdity of the moment.
Star forward Viktor Gyokeres has also been vital to the Midlands outfit’s surge up the table, scoring three in the last six.
Robins’ troops face a tough test away at fourth-placed Middlesbrough on the final day and only need a draw to make the play-offs.
Renowned stats website FiveThirtyEightis heavily backing the Sky Blues to seal a spot in the top six, rating their chances of making the play-offs at 87 per cent.
Fox Sports’ prediction: QUALIFY FOR PLAY-OFFS
6TH: MILLWALL, 68 PTS, +8 GD
Final day fixture: Blackburn Rovers (h)
Looking at Millwall’s previous five fixtures, most fans would have predicted the team to qualify for the play-offs comfortably.
Aside from Preston North End and Hull City, Millwall faced teams struggling in the lower half of the Championship: Birmingham City, Blackpool and Wigan Athletic.
Somehow, Gary Rowett’s side lost to Birmingham and Wigan and just edged out Blackpool in a startling patch of form considering how well they had done all season.
The win against Blackpool was also the first time they scored three goals since February 18.
All eyes will be fixated on Millwall’s final game of the season given it is against Blackburn Rovers, who are also in the hunt for the play-offs.
But the added advantage for Millwall is the fact they are the only side of the ones mentioned who get to play at home.
FiveThirtyEight gives Rowett’s side a 67 per cent chance of making the top six, but given it’s against a team who will also fight tooth and nail to keep their season alive, Millwall are no guarantees.
Fox Sports’ prediction: MISS OUT ON PLAY-OFFS
7TH: SUNDERLAND, 66 PTS, +10 GD
Final day fixture: Preston North End (a)
Sunderland have plenty of wind in their sails as they enter the final day on an eight-game unbeaten streak, with three wins and five draws in that space.
However, there’s been a worrying trend in that space as the Black Cats have gone behind first in all but one of those games.
Sunderland wouldn’t even be in this conversation if it wasn’t for star forward Patrick Roberts’ second half stoppage time equaliser against Watford.
But, as we’ve seen in the Championship on several occasions, momentum can be a funny thing and the feel-good factor of scoring such a late goal will have the Black Cats buzzing.
Tony Mowbray’s side face Preston North End, a team who has scored fewer goals than two of the bottom three teams in the league and have lost three of their last four, conceding 12 goals in that time.
Anything less than a draw will not do for Sunderland, which is perhaps a reason why FiveThirtyEight gives the Black Cats a 28 per cent chance of making the top six.
Fox Sports’ prediction: QUALIFY FOR PLAY-OFFS
8TH: WEST BROMWICH ALBION, 66 PTS, +7 GD
Final day fixture: Swansea City (a)
The decision to sack Steve Bruce earlier in the season has been vindicated as Carlos Corberan has the Baggies well in the mix.
West Brom go into the final day on the back of a 2-1 win over Norwich City, killing off the Canaries’ play-off hopes while simultaneously boosting their own.
However, the win over Norwich was preceded by consecutive losses to Sunderland and Sheffield United.
The inconsistency at this late stage is worrying, but going into the final day on a win is crucial.
A trip to Swansea City awaits Corberan’s side in what is perhaps the trickiest fixture facing one of the play-off hopefuls.
After all, Swansea have won six of their last eight games and conceded only five goals in that same period of time.
FiveThirtyEight has the Baggies sitting at a nine per cent chance of qualifying for the play-offs and it’s hard to disagree.
Fox Sports’ prediction: MISS OUT ON PLAY-OFFS
9TH: BLACKBURN ROVERS, 66 PTS, -3 GD
Final day fixture: Millwall (a)
It’s been over a decade since Blackburn Rovers were last in the Premier League, but the Ewood Park faithful will be hoping the wait won’t continue for much longer.
Rovers had been in the top six for the vast majority of the season yet a wretched run of recent results has forced the former Premier League champions out of it.
Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side have failed to win any of their past eight games and have conceded stoppage time equalisers to rivals in two of those contests.
Had they held on for a win, perhaps Rovers would be breathing a little easier about their play-off hopes.
Instead, Blackburn now makes the trip down south to Millwall knowing they need a win and a big one at that while also hoping for the teams above them to drop points.
Put simply, everything needs to go right for Blackburn if they wish to make the play-offs.
With several factors not in their favour, FiveThirtyEight gives Rovers the lowest chance of qualifying for the top six at eight per cent.
Fox Sports’ Prediction: MISS OUT ON PLAY-OFFS
