ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Oklahoma in 2023

ESPN has released their game-by-game predictions, as well as their overall record projection, for Oklahoma in 2023 via their Football Power Index.

The Sooners are entering Year 2 under Brent Venables hoping to return to the program to its former stature. The 2022 season was an anomaly for the proud program, finishing with a losing record for the first time since 1998.

Oklahoma hopes to prove that 2022 was just a transition year and not a new normal as it gets ready for the SEC. Dillon Gabriel is back to lead the offense while a highly-rated recruiting class joined the fray to help elevate the talent on the roster.

Here’s the full game-by-game predictions from ESPN’s FPI for Oklahoma this season.

Sept. 2: Oklahoma vs Arkansas State — 95.4% chance of win

The Sooners open their 2023 campaign with an easy opening week game versus Arkansas State. The Red Wolves made nine straight bowl games last decade but have struggled in the 2020s.

Under head coach Butch Jones, Arkansas State has gone 5-17 over the past two seasons. This game will be the third matchup between Oklahoma and Arkansas State in history and the first one since 2000.

Sept. 9: Oklahoma vs SMU — 83.2% chance of win

Despite the close distance between the two programs and a rich football history for each of them, Oklahoma and SMU have not faced one another often. The teams have faced seven times. This will be the first matchup since 1995.

The Sooners influence on the Mustangs has been evident in recent years with former Oklahoma quarterback Tanner Mordecai transferring to SMU and becoming the starter the past two seasons. But Preston Stone is now under center for SMU, which should make it an entertaining matchup versus Oklahoma.

Sept. 16: Oklahoma at Tulsa — 91.5% chance of win

Oklahoma opens it road schedule with a surprising opponent in Tulsa. The in-state foes agreed to a three-game series that included this home game in Tulsa and then two games in Norman in 2030 and 2031. The Golden Hurricanes will also host games versus Oklahoma State in 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030.

The Sooners are heavy favorites in the game and have historically done the job against Tulsa. Since 1979, Oklahoma has lost only once to the Golden Hurricanes. That came in 1996 in a game in Norman.

Sept. 23: Oklahoma at Cincinnati — 72.4% chance of win

It will be nearly 13 years to the day from the last time Oklahoma and Cincinnati faced off when the two meet again in late September in Cincinnati. That 2010 game was a great affair with the Sooners edging out a 31-29 victory.

The setup is much different now. The two teams are now in the same conference and the Bearcats have actually made the College Football Playoff more recently than the Sooners. But Oklahoma is still expected to win.

Sept. 30: Oklahoma vs Iowa State — 81.7% chance of win

There is probably no program Oklahoma has dominated over the decades like it has with Iowa State. The two teams first faced off in 1928 — a game that the Cyclones actually won.

But since then it has been all Sooners pretty much all the time. Oklahoma has an all-time record of 79-7-2 against Iowa State. Its 79 wins is the third-most against any one program. Iowa State has won two recent matchups in 2017 and 2020 but it will have to work hard to win another in 2023.

Oct. 7: Oklahoma vs Texas — 37.2% chance of win

The final Red River Rivalry Game with both teams in the Big 12 has the potential to be an impactful revenge game for Oklahoma. Texas beatdown on the Sooners in embarrassing fashion last year at the Cotton Bowl in a 49-0 blowout.

It was the largest margin of victory in the game’s history and a day Oklahoma fans would like to forget. One way to help forget it would be to comeback this year and return the favor to the Longhorns — especially with expectations as high as they are in Austin this year.

Oct. 21: Oklahoma vs UCF — 75.4% chance of win

This will be the first-ever matchup between the Knights and the Sooners. And considering that Oklahoma will be off to the SEC at the end of the school year, it may be the only matchup for a long time.

The Sooners have a 75.4% chance of defeating UCF and head coach Gus Malzahn. Both teams will be entering the game coming off a bye week.

Oct. 28: Oklahoma at Kansas — 82.2% chance of win

Oklahoma has defeated Kansas 18 straight times over the past two-plus decades. The odds are in its favor it will extend it to 19 this year, according to FPI.

The games between the two teams have no been close during this long winning streak for the Sooners. Last year’s 52-42 victory was the closest margin of victory for Oklahoma this century versus the Jayhawks.

Nov. 4: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State — 67.8% chance of win

The last Bedlam Game with both teams in the Big 12 is going to be one of the most anticipated games of the 2023 season’s final month based purely on what a victory would mean to each program. With the rivalry game expected to stop once the Sooners leave for the SEC, a win this year will hold bragging rights for years to come.

The Sooners have won 17 of the past 20 Bedlam Games, including last year’s matchup with a 28-13 win. FPI has the team as the current favorites once again with around a 2/3’s shot of returning to Norman as the victors.

Nov. 11: Oklahoma vs West Virginia — 88.3% chance of win

West Virginia defeated Oklahoma for the first time as a member of the Big 12 last year. The Mountaineers will hope to send the Sooners packing with a second straight victory this year.

It won’t be easy, even considering the game will be played in Morgantown, W.V. The Mountaineers are projected to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 with a lot of question marks surrounding the team while the Sooners have high expectations heading into the season.

Nov. 18: Oklahoma at BYU — 78.7% chance of win

BYU and Oklahoma have faced off twice in the history of college football — and the Cougars have won both times. The first win came in 1994 Copper Bowl when BYU won 31-6.

The second game was an Opening Week contest in 2009 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It was the first-ever college football game at AT&T Stadium with the Cougars upsetting the Sooners — who made the BCS National Championship Game the year prior. Oklahoma is favored to get their first win over BYU when the two teams play in November.

Nov. 24: Oklahoma vs TCU — 67.0% chance of win

While the Red River Rivalry Game will be the beatdown loss many fans will remember from the 2022 season, Oklahoma’s loss to TCU the week before was the game that really threw the team’s season for a loop. Coming off a loss to Kansas State the week before, TCU sucker-punched Oklahoma in Fort Worth as it led the game 41-17 at the half.

The Horned Frogs won the matchup 55-24 as it went on to finish the regular season undefeated and make the College Football Playoff National Championship. The Sooners descended down in the other direction on their way to a 6-7 finish. The rematch this year in Norman, Okla., could have significant stakes for the Big 12 Championship Game.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Oklahoma — 9.4-3.0

Oklahoma enters the 2023 season ranked as the 11th team in ESPN’s FPI projections and as the second-best team in the Big 12 behind Texas. It also has the second-best odds to win the conference after the Longhorns at 22.6%.

It is projected to finished with 9.4 wins, which is eighth-best in college football. Only four teams are projected by FPI to top double digits.

After a 2022 season Oklahoma fans would like to forget about as quickly as possible, that is good to hear. But if the team exceeds those expectations, 2023 could turn into more than just a year to wipe away 2022. It could be a season for the ages.