ESPN’s Football Power Index high on Vols ahead of 2023 season
Tennessee just wrapped up spring practice with the Orange & White Game on Saturday and the 2023 season, though still more than four months away, will be here before you know it. The preseason top-25 polls won’t be released until much closer to kickoff in September, but some of college football’s primary metrics are already coming out with their preseason rankings and projections. One of those is ESPN’s Football Power Index, which views the Vols as a top-15 team heading into the 2023 season.
The FPI ranks Tennessee at No. 12 nationally and fourth in the SEC behind Alabama, Georgia and LSU. Despite the high ranking, Tennessee is projected to win 8.2 games per the FPI. It seems low, but only the aforementioned top-five trio are projected to win more among SEC with the Vols the only other team above the eight-win mark.
Georgia’s presence means Tennessee has just a 5.4% chance of winning the SEC East per the FPI – the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs are an overwhelming favorite with an 89.5% chance of winning the division.
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According to the FPI, Tennessee’s SEC championship chances (1.2%) are also small with Georgia (49.3%) and Alabama (40.9%) the heavy favorites ahead of LSU (7.1%).
The FPI also gives the Vols a very outside shot (2.5% chance) at making the College Football Playoff. The rest of its CFP odds view Ohio State (82.2%), Georgia (63.1%) and Alabama (62.1%) as the favorites, while Texas (34.2%), Michigan (25.9%), Southern California (24.7%), Clemson (24.2%) and LSU (23.7%) have the next-best chances of making the top four at season’s end. Notre Dame (15.8%), Oklahoma (10.7%) and Penn State (10.7%) all have CFP chances above 10% and Oregon (4.9%), Florida State (4.4%) and Utah (3.9%) are in the single-digit percentages but ahead of Tennessee.
What is the FPI? Here is ESPN's explanation: “Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special team component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” It is meant to be a predictive measure, and its projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using the FPI, past results and remaining schedule, and it changes on a weekly basis during the season.
The Vols are coming off an 11-win season that saw them finish No. 6 in the final Associated Press Poll. Tennessee was one spot better in the final FPI, ranking No. 5 behind Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Michigan. The Vols were No. 1 in the first CFP rankings after starting 8-0 before losing at Georgia, then a loss at South Carolina eliminated them from Playoff contention in the penultimate game of the regular season.
Tennessee clinched its best season since 2001 by beating Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
The Vols open the 2023 season against Virginia in Nashville before playing four of its next five games at Neyland Stadium. After the home opener against Austin Peay, Tennessee opens SEC play at Florida, then hosts UTSA and South Carolina to close September. Following an open date, the Vols play Texas A&M at home and Alabama and Kentucky on the road in October.
The November slate is headlined by Georgia’s visit in the next-to-last game of the season. Tennessee hosts Connecticut and goes to Missouri before the Bulldogs come to Knoxville. The Vols close the regular season against in-state rival Vanderbilt at home.
