Even with departures, Ohio State football has the talent to beat Missouri in the Cotton Bowl: Tyler Shoemaker’s ‘Betting the Buckeyes’

COLUMBUS, Ohio - As we look at Ohio State football vs. Missouri in the Cotton Bowl, I still have Ohio State as the nation’s No. 2 team in my TSI Index. The funny thing is, seven of the top 10 power-rated teams did not make the CFP.

Not to rant about the selection process, but when the committee says they’re putting the four “best” teams in, that’s not what they’re doing. They’re putting in the four “most deserving” teams, which is OK. Just say that.

Missouri is my No. 15 overall team.

For all of the criticism of the Ohio State offense and the praise of Missouri’s offense and receiver Luther Burden, in particular, the Ohio State offense is rated higher than the Tigers’, at No. 17 and No. 24, respectively.

Obviously, Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected not to play, along with season-long quarterback starter Kyle McCord, who’s transferring to Syracuse. But (hot take alert) I wouldn’t adjust my rating on the Buckeyes based on those absences due to the fact they’re replacing them with a ton of talent.

OSU may have to play more by committee on offense than with Harrison in the lineup, but I don’t think they’re necessarily going to be worse, as sacrilegious as that sounds when we’re talking about the best receiver in Ohio State history.

Defensively, the Buckeyes’ are still my No. 1 unit in the country, and the Tigers are a respectable 23rd.

I project the Buckeyes as 10.5-point favorites, with a total of 49.

We’ve seen this number travel all the way from OSU -6.5 to Missouri -2.5 and now back to OSU -3.

The total has seen some under money come in, shaving the over/under down to 49 from 51.5.

I often talk about the market overreaction to players missing games, and this seems to be no different. I think people hear, “Harrison and McCord are out” and automatically went to bet Missouri. But with the Buckeyes’ defense seemingly intact for this game, and a plethora of offensive talent at Ryan Day’s disposal – not to mention the QB run threat with Devin Brown – I think this line movement has been a little crazy.

Not to pander to the audience, but I’m going all Buckeyes here.

I like Ohio State -3 for the game, I like Ohio State minus-1.5 in the first half, and I like the Missouri team total under 21.5 (+100) for all of the reasons I’ve outlined.

Coming into bowl season, I might’ve been leaning more into the concept of Missouri wanting this game more because OSU was disappointed about missing the College Football Playoff. But the more reporting that’s been done by the Buckeye beat, the more I’m buying into the mentality of this team, and there’s never been a question about which team is more talented.

If Ohio State is indeed locked in, I think they can win this by two or more scores.

If you thought I pandered to the crowd with the last answer, you’ll definitely change your mind here:

I really like Michigan -1.5 against Alabama. The world is loading up on Alabama stock coming into this game and completely dismissing what Michigan has been all season.

With no Connor Stalions or Jim Harbaugh, Michigan put together some will-deflating drives against the Buckeyes and won that game with execution and aggression, and spoiler alert: Ohio State is better than Alabama this year.

I project Michigan as an 8-point favorite and am letting the public continue betting this number down before I place probably my biggest wager of the season on the Wolverines. (Sorry, Buckeye Nation)

Ohio State bets: 16-15

Best bets: 10-14

Tyler Shoemaker started betting on sports in 2017, trying hit 10-team parlays every college football Saturday. His hobby quickly turned into a competitive obsession once he learned some betting fundamentals – including the unlikelihood of ever hitting a 10-team parlay.

The idea of his T Shoe Index (TSI) was planted.

Tyler has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree, neither of which is in anything stats or data-related, so he started with a pen and notebook and math. In 2018, those notebooks eventually turned into spreadsheets that he manually populated, which led to his first opportunity to become the unofficial sports betting expert of cleveland.com’s “Buckeye Talk” podcast..

Last season, he cashed 60% (24-16) of his best bets. He hit on 80% (8-2) of his Ohio State bets and was profitable 38% (5-8) on his touchdown-or-more money line upset picks.

This season, he shared his insights in a weekly post, “Betting the Buckeyes.”

If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or the National Council on Program Gambling Helpline (NCPG) at 1-800-522-4700 or visit 1800gambler.net