Ohio State football vs. Michigan score predictions: Reclaim The Game or extend the streak?

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State football is an underdog in The Game for the first time since 2018.

If anything, that might play in its favor. Ohio State performs well as an underdog — real or through manufactured perception — under Ryan Day.

Have the recent performance trends between the two teams started to lean in the Buckeyes’ favor. Or do they not matter in a rivalry game with this much on the line?

We made our picks against DraftKings’ Wednesday line of Michigan -3.5, with an over/under point total of 46. Watch our video above for a more detailed explanation of our picks, and see our season-long prediction performance below.

Ohio State 23, Michigan 22

This has seemed like a toss-up dating back to last spring. So many of the most crucial areas, though, seem to be trending in the Buckeyes’ favor. The offensive line’s season-long improvement — as glacial as it felt at times — has finally synched up with the best running of TreVeyon Henderson’s life. That will be essential for OSU to avoid leaving points on the field in the red zone. While the performance there has improved in recent weeks, Michigan is the best in the country at defending those final 20 yards.

Whether Michigan’s sign-stealing scheme affected last year’s results or not, OSU’s defense is better today as a result of being exposed in that game. Rather than worry about the integrity of the back end, though, OSU fans should focus on the defensive front. This is the game J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Williams and Mike Hall Jr. have waited three years to not only play, but control.

Kyle McCord is now tasked with doing what J.J. McCarthy did last year — go into enemy territory and make the plays that win. His cool, collected reputation has never been more essential. In a game that could come down to the final seconds, only one of these teams — and one of these quarterbacks — has shown it can go on the road and execute with its season on the brink.

Game pick: OSU +3.5 (Wager 20 Buckeye Talk Tokens)

Over/under: Under 46 (20 BTT)

Ohio State 23, Michigan 16

For weeks, this result seemed to be one of the most unlikely possible outcomes when discussing The Game.

It is no longer outlandish.

The Buckeyes have improved their offensive line steadily over the season, and now, while still not a strength of the entire roster, it’s a unit that can do enough to win a game. The running game has also been much improved since the return of TreVeyon Henderson, adding another element to an offense that desperately needed one. Those were, through the first eight or so games of the season, the biggest areas of concern with Ohio State.

The defense has been remarkable all year long, and the skill position players for Ohio State are, too. It’s those players that are going to win the game for the Buckeyes, paired with the steady improvements of weak spots on the roster.

Kyle McCord doesn’t have to do everything, just enough. The offensive line doesn’t have to be elite, it just has to do enough. The special teams play doesn’t have to be stellar, it just has to be average.

From there, the entire defense and stars on offense will carry the Buckeyes to the Big Ten title game. And coach Ryan Day will earn a long-awaited win.

Game pick: OSU +3.5 (15 BTT)

Over/under: Under 46 (5 BTT)

Ohio State 24, Michigan 13

The way the Penn State game played out for both of these teams is a good indication for what might happen when they get together on Saturday. Points will be hard to come by in a defensive battle where every yard matters. I’m picking the Buckeyes to win simply because I have more faith in the multitude of weapons at their disposal in comparison to a Wolverines team that relies so heavily on the run.

The 11-point victory is less a testament to OSU being that much better and more about this being a four-quarter game where a late game touchdown ultimately seals the win.

Game pick: Ohio State +3.5 (3 BTT)

Over/under: Under 46 (10 BTT)

NATHAN BAIRD

Game pick: Ohio State -27.5 WON (+9.09)

Over/under: Under 50 WON (+4.55)

Season record: 4-4-3 ATS, 6-5-0 O/U

New bankroll: 94.55

ANDREW GILLIS

Game pick: Minnesota +27.5 LOST (-15)

Over/Under: Under 50 WON (+4.55)

Season record: 3-5-3 ATS, 7-4-0 O/U

New bankroll: 100.67

STEPHEN MEANS

Game pick: Ohio State -27.5 WON (+5.45)

O/U: Under 50 WON (+2.73)

Season record: 5-3-3 ATS, 4-7-0 O/U

New bankroll: 86.47

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