Fair odds: In the Woodbine Mile, go against the betting favorite

When it comes to success betting on horse racing, taking a stand against a horse can be as lucrative as picking the right one.

At least that is what I hope with my wagering strategy for the Grade 1, US$746,453 Woodbine Mile on Saturday.

No. 1 Master of The Seas is even money on the morning line and should be every bit of that. He will more likely be odds-on when facing five rivals with no. 3 Shirl's Speight the only Grade 1 or Group 1 winner among them.

Master of The Seas himself actually never has won at that level, but a second two years ago in the 2,000 Guineas and a third in Jebel Hatta this year certainly stack his form tall, especially in light of less-regarded invaders such as Bolshoi Ballet shipping in to win Grade 1 races this year in America.

There is also the matter of Master of The Seas's connections. Trainer Charlie Appleby is an incredible 6-for-8 in Grade 1 races at Woodbine, including a big win in this race last year with the now-retired Modern Games. No. 2 War Bomber, who I think will be the best bet in this race when the odds settle, was ninth of 11, losing by 15 lengths to Modern Games last year.

But, and with all due credit to Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, Master of The Seas is no Modern Games, yet he will be a similar price in this race.

Does Master of The Seas win this race more often than any other horse entered in the Woodbine Mile? Yes. Does he win this race more often than the rest of the field combined, which he would have to for him to offer fair odds? No.

Yes, Godolphin's son of Dubawi has a big class advantage here, and jockey William Buick is 1-for-3 with a pair of seconds in Grade 1 races at Woodbine. The rest of the field's riders are a combined 3-for-44 in such races. The bottom line for me is this horse is only as fast at best as what we've seen from the aforementioned War Bomber or Shirl's Speight, and taking even money on "as fast" is a recipe for disaster.

I ultimately landed on War Bomber as the likely best bet, given I see him as the second-most likely winner off being 6-1 fourth choice on the morning line. The War Front gelding has excelled at this track and distance, including a neck win in the local prep for this, the King Edward on the King's Plate undercard Aug. 19.

War Bomber should sit a great trip behind no. 5 My Sea Cottage, one of the three in here for dual hall-of-fame trainer Mark Casse and the one who is least likely to win but who plays an important role in assuring some pace under jockey Dylan Davis.

Shirl's Speight is a local favorite and probably needed one off the nearly five-month layoff since finishing fourth in the Dubai Turf (G1) on World Cup night at Meydan. Incidentally, Master of The Seas was 13th in that race, 14 lengths behind Shirl's Speight.

If not for the lack of pace, I'd probably value Shirl's Speight slightly ahead of War Bomber, but a repeat of the King Edward seems plausible here.

I will be watching the board, including exacta will-pays, with plans to most intensely focus on two or three numbers with some options to pepper in no. 4 Ice Chocolat and no. 6 Lucky Score. I greatly prefer the latter at the morning-line prices, but I do not think Lucky Score will be that long or offer that kind of separation from the rest.