Fangraphs likes Milwaukee Brewers' playoff odds after trade deadline

While much of the national media gave the Milwaukee Brewers fairly solid marks after the trade deadline, the team's acquisitions didn't exactly make a 1980s County Stadium beer mug splash.

Or did they?

In its review of 2023 trade deadline winners and losers, Fangraphs.com claims the more aggressive Brewers made the right moves to finish atop the National League Central.

Carlos Santana, Mark Canha, and Andrew Chafin aren't exactly the first baseball cards you look for at the top of a pack, but the trio appears to have brightened the Brewers' postseason picture, in part, Ben Clemens writes, because the Cincinnati Reds decided to hang on to their glossy prospects.

"The Brewers didn’t come into the deadline planning to expend much prospect capital. Their team is hardly a juggernaut, and they could use a minor league talent infusion soon to offset the upcoming losses of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. But thanks to the vagaries of the market, they were able to add two meaningful pieces in Canha and Andrew Chafin without doing much to affect their future plans.

That’s not a bad start, but it gets better than that. Luis Urías had turned into a sunk cost; he’s making $4.7 million in arbitration this year, but played poorly enough to get demoted to Triple-A. The budget-conscious Brewers were likely going to DFA him, but they traded him to the Red Sox instead and got Bradley Blalock, a 40+ FV starter who’s been on fire this year. Recouping value when players don’t pan out like you’d hoped is a key part of the Milwaukee strategy, and this is a good example.

And there’s more! The Reds are leading the NL Central, but they essentially sat out the deadline. Their core is made up mostly of rookies, and I’m sure they’re telling themselves that now is too soon to strike, but come on, man. The NL Central probably won’t be this winnable for years to come. The Cubs are on the rise. The Cardinals won’t stay down long. The Pirates… Well, fine, you can’t win them all. But the Reds sat on their hands, which meant the Brewers’ additions went unopposed."

Brewers' odds to make the playoffs are good

Despite having a minus-15 run differential, Fangraphs currently puts the Brewers' playoff chances at 65.2%. While that isn't exactly a slam-dunk probability, it's much higher than the Reds (41%) or the Chicago Cubs (29.5%).

The Brewers have a 54.1% chance to win the division while Cincinnati's chance to capture the NL Central is at 26.4%. After deciding to keep Cody Bellinger, the Cubs' odds of a division title are 18.8%

So while something like Santana's career walk rate doesn't exactly scream playoffs to casual baseball fans, it's the type of number that might help add up to October attendance figures at American Family Field this fall.