Field, Odds, Horse Previews, Tips, Betting and Speed Map

justhorseracing.com.au

28 October 2023

‘The best two minutes in Sport’ for Australia is the Cox Plate and the 2023 edition this Saturday at The Valley looks to be an absolute beauty.

Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Cox Plate.

2023 Cox Plate Runner Preview:

1. Romantic Warrior: I think you have to be very forgiving of the Turnbul when it comes to Romantic Warrior. Multiple yard experts said he paraded horribly, and then to add to that, he got keen in the run, was used up early…I thought the run was a definite pass mark and the old saying, forgive a good horse for one bad run. He is a top class horse, I am convinced of that, and will improve big time. He’s still the one to beat.

2. Zaaki: He probably isn’t racing as well as he once was, but still, he has returned super and has only been beaten narrowly both runs this time in. He will have to do work to land on speed but gets D Lane and he knows how to handle a quirky horse, with Humidor coming to mind. He’s one that can run top four.

3. Mr Brightside: 0/2 at 2000m but he’s a much better horse this time around. Disappointing for punters in the King Charles but he actually picked up and was solid to the line, suggesting 2000m will be fine. He has a soft gate to do no work to negate the 2000m query and we know his record at The Valley is top shelf.

4. Alligator Blood: I still have my doubts on him at 2000m. Yes, the Might And Power win was strong, but running a closing second was Vow And Declare, who is a good horse, but no star WFA galloper, and Duais was ridden like it was a barrier trial, so IMO there is enough to say this guy is a risk, especially if Zaaki pours the pressure on.

5. Gold Trip: Gold Trip eats up pressure and the Caufield Cup run was a beautiful top off for this. I think rule a line through him for the Melbourne Cup with the weight. His best chance of winning a big one is here where he is at WFA and his runs at MV, without luck, have been outstanding. Zahra is back on, he’s hard fit now, in form and history says he bounces off hard racing.

6. My Oberon: He hasn’t won since this meeting last year, but I can make a case that he is one of the more in form horses in Australia. He just can’t find a wet track. He would have been a multiple Group l winner this prep if he found wet tracks. He won’t get it here and I doubt him at 2000m. He’s flying but I can’t entertain him.

7. Pinstriped: Strong winner of the Feehan, far from disgraced in the Toorak…but he’s not up to these.

8. Fangirl: She got THE perfect set up in the King Charles. Biased track, firm deck, soft run off a sit/sprint, clear at the right time and she gapped them. Much different this time around and I am finding Zac Purton this season, whether it be here or Hong Kong, hard to catch, so IMO it’s a jockey downgrade. She’ll be dragged back and needing a lot of luck. Not for me.

9. Duais: Big, big improver. Forgive and forget the Might And Power. Dragged back from the wide gate, the intent was that of a barrier trial and she was ridden accordingly. She now gets an inside gate to settle much closer and if the breaks go her way, she has the finale to be dangerous at a big price.

10. Victoria Road: He has form lines, some anyway, that are elite, namely Ace Impact. But all of his form is at the mile. He’s not a 2000m horse IMO and I reckon he’ll be found wanting late. How he is $7 I do not know. I am marking him much, much longer.

11. Militarize: On paper, to the eye, it was an okay run in the Guineas from Militarize, but when you break down the race shape and the run he had, I am very forgiving. And the set up is there to give me the middle finger with Zac Lloyd riding, giving this a 12/10 steer and he wins the Cox Plate after he burned me on the weekend with Marquess and Commemorative. This horse will eat up 2000m, BUT, he needs to draw soft. He can’t give them a start and beat them IMO.

12. King Colorado: He’s ticking along beautifully. Just needs a half decent ride but hasn’t got it yet this prep. The gate makes things tricky and IMO, I think he’ll be better suited next week in the Derby should they head that way.

2023 Cox Plate Odds

2023 Cox Plate Speed Map

Alligator Blood should find the top comfortably from gate five. Mr Brightside will use the inside gate to advantage, as will Militarize. Drawn out, Zaaki will press forward and the potential is there for Romantic Warrior to lob into a beaut spot just off the speed. Gold Trip, Fangirl and King Colorado will likely drag back.