First Inning Betting: Nationals Take Aim at Struggling Severino
It’s pretty hard to imagine that the rebuilding Washington Nationals could soon have a better record than both the New York Mets and Yankees. An awful year of baseball in the Big Apple. The surging Nationals have earned a leadoff spot in our first-inning scoring suggestions for Wednesday. Take a look below, and good luck with your MLB picks!
Nationals vs Yankees
New York is suffering through its longest streak since 1982 and has its worst pitcher on the mound Wednesday as they try to avoid a double-digit slide. Worst pitcher in terms of the numbers, at least, as Luis Severino is a mere shadow of his former self and a key figure in this team’s tailspin.
We’ve banked on some early runs against Severino multiple times in the past month, and it’s been an easy bet online. It’s also been rather fruitful, as the two-time All-Star has an atrocious 14.79 ERA in that frame. You need 23 earned runs in just 14 innings to get a number like that, so it stands to reason we’d consider another Severino pick at the sportsbook.
The 29-year-old has an 11.37 ERA over his last five starts, with opponents batting .371 and accumulating more runs (26) than Severino strikeouts (21) in 19 total innings. It’s been a complete mess, and Washington has the kind of attack that can take advantage.
The Nationals, hitting .291 and averaging 5.6 runs per game during an 8-2 stretch, rank eighth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (32.3). They’re fourth in all of baseball, with a .280 average in the first.
MacKenzie Gore gets the start for Washington in this one. He’s coming off 6⅓ scoreless against Boston last Wednesday, so he comes in with some momentum. That was a home start, however, and Gore has had his share of issues on the road, where he has a 5.11 ERA (9.95 over the last four roadies).
The Yankees don’t do much at the plate (or anywhere else), but they do have that Judge guy and Gore is tied for 10th in the National League in home runs allowed (21).
Put it all together, size the MLB lines, and take a leap on an early run or two in the Bronx.
Red Sox vs Astros
We’re playing a little bit of a hunch in this one, as there are several numbers relating to RIFI that would indicate a solid opening for both ChrisSale and Jose Urquidy. But there are also a few that suggest the opposite and, again, enough to play a hunch on these two pitchers/teams.
Urquidy will be up against a Red Sox lineup that has scored eight first-inning runs in five games on its current road trip. Boston ranks sixth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (33.3).
A 13-game winner a year ago, Urquidy has endured injuries and ineffectiveness in 2023. He enters this one with a 5.21 ERA after tossing two scoreless in relief in his last appearance.
The 28-year-old has some so-so first-inning numbers, but the sample size is rather small. Just know there’s been some traffic on the bases against the righty this year and that current Red Sox hitters are 10-for-32 (.312) with five extra-base hits against Urquidy.
Sale will be making his third start since coming off the injured list and his second straight on the road, where he has a 5.20 ERA this year. He tied a season-high with three walks while also hitting a batter in 4⅓ uneven innings at Washington on Thursday.
Houston scored two times in the first in Tuesday’s 7-3 win, which is nothing new. The Astros are first in the AL in runs per first (0.7) and will immediately challenge Sale.
Dodgers vs Guardians
This one comes down to whether Xzavion Curry can keep the high-powered Dodgers off the board in the top of the first inning. Well, let’s look at some numbers to see if there’s a chance.
Curry, who has primarily served out of the bullpen this year, is coming off six innings of one-run ball against Detroit. That left him with a sparkling 2.48 ERA in 16 appearances (three starts) at home this year.
He has allowed four runs in six first innings, but that’s a tiny sample size. What’s more notable over a larger subset is the fact that opponents have a .683 OPS against Curry’s first 25 pitches of an outing and they’re hitting .191 in innings 1-3.
The Dodgers scored a pair of first-inning runs Tuesday at Cleveland. You might have to hold your breath when Curry faces Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, but if the MLB odds give you a good payout opportunity, perhaps you can back this emerging Georgia Tech product.
On the other side of the coin sits Clayton Kershaw, making his third start since coming off the IL. He was just fine in the first two, allowing one run on three hits in five innings both times.
The three-time Cy Young Award winner has been solid in every inning, as he always is, and the first is no exception. He sports a 2.00 first-inning ERA in his 18 starts, a fine number he’ll take into a matchup with the team that ranks 24th in the majors in first-inning on-base percentage (.306).
Neither of these guys figure to last too long. Factor that into your MLB live betting.
