Five Kentucky Derby contenders to watch, including Derma Sotogake

Forte solidified his place on the Kentucky Derby trail with a win in the Florida Derby in early April, giving him a total of 190 points, the most of any horse looking to secure a gate for this year’s Run for the Roses. His status as the probable favorite is justified by his overall performance — he’s won six of seven career races, including four Grade 1 wins — but the Florida Derby win was against a lackluster field and Forte’s pedigree raises questions whether he can carry his speed 1¼ miles for the first time. Nevertheless, expect him to be on many wagering slips on the first Saturday in May — just not mine.

After the final big weekend of prep races, we now know that joining Forte at Churchill Downs in a few weeks, barring injury or some other unforeseen circumstance, will be Tapit Trice, Practical Move and Lord Miles.

Tapit Trice already earned a gate in the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in March and only bolstered his case with a win on Saturday in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes. The 8-5 favorite was five wide entering the backstretch and managed to hold off second-choice Verifiying (2-1) by a neck to seal the win. It was a valiant effort — and yet I still don’t think this Tapit son is primed for the classic distance of 10 furlongs.

Practical Move, the even-money favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, won his third straight graded stakes race on Saturday after he edged Mandarin Hero by a nose. Practical Move’s 160 Derby points are second only to Forte, and his pedigree suggests he’s a contender in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Lord Miles was the biggest surprise of the weekend, hitting the wire first in the Wood Memorial and paying $120.50 for a $2 wager. This son of Curlin hadn’t won since breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park in November, four races ago, so don’t be ashamed if he wasn’t on your radar.

“We dreamed about getting this horse in the Kentucky Derby and it didn’t look good for a while but now our dreams have become reality,” trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said after the victory.

Kentucky Derby hopefuls will have one more chance to gain points and earn a starting gate at the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 15. But it’s a small stakes race in terms of points; just 20 points are awarded to the winner, compared to 100 points for the Wood Memorial Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby.

Until the final field is set, here are my top five contenders, in alphabetical order, after taking into account performance to date and pedigree. Odds are from the final future odds pool, which closed on April 1.