Ky. Derby fair odds: If Forte is unplayable, where's the value?

Although three major prep races remain this weekend plus one final dash for points next weekend, champion Forte all but clinched favorite status in the Kentucky Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs when he won the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Of course, favorite does not always mean most likely winner or a good bet. When the former happens, that is one of the best wagering opportunities in the game. I agree that Forte is the most likely winner, giving him a 4-1 (20 percent) chance to wear the roses, but alas, he is not a good bet.

But judging by his 2.89-1 price in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, which closed before he won the Florida Derby, it is very unlikely Forte will be that price 35 days later let alone the 4-1 I see as fair.

I'm already forecasting that precarious situation where we acknowledge the public has correctly picked the most likely winner but has overbet the horse to the point of him becoming unplayable.

So where is the potential value? For now, I'd say it's either Tapit Trice or in Southern California. The former is Forte's Todd Pletcher-trainer stablemate and likely favorite for the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). His Tampa Bay Derby (G3) tactics will not make him an ideal Kentucky Derby candidate, so I am keen to see his performance and style Saturday at Keeneland.

In Southern California, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) has the look of the deepest prep to date, with four of my top 20 expected in the field. If Skinner makes any kind of run, I'm unlikely to give up on him. Along with Forte and Tapit Trice, Practical Move has flashed the most talent this year, but I am somewhat concerned with Practical Joke going 1 1/4 miles, so again, style and substance will be key in his final prep.