Florida International vs New Mexico State Predictions

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02 October 2023

Florida International vs New Mexico State Predictions

Conference USA is giving us a midweek clash between Florida International and New Mexico State but it may be a quiet night offensively given the tempo of these two offenses. Read more in our NCAAF betting picks below.

Conference USA is giving football fans plenty of midweek action during the 2023 college football season.

In a move to get more viewers, the conference moved to a midweek scheduling model that will satiate the avid viewer’s appetite primarily during the month of October.

Wednesday night marks the CUSA appetizer as the Florida International Panthers (3-2) look to match last season’s win total with a visit to Las Cruces to face the New Mexico State Aggies (2-3).

Looking at the college football odds, the home team is favored to come out on top. I’ve got my eye on the total for my best bet, however, as this matchup projects to have a unique tempo offensively.

college football picks for Florida International vs. New Mexico State on Wednesday, October 4.

Florida International vs New Mexico State best odds

Florida International vs New Mexico State picks and predictions

The Florida International Panthers are in Year 2 of the Mike MacIntyre regime. This is his third stop and he’s had a losing record at all three schools, although FIU is above .500 on the year which offers reason for optimism after a 4-8 finish in 2022.

The Panthers have benefitted from a soft schedule thus far, notching one-score victories over Maine, North Texas, and UConn while narrowly losing the opener against Louisiana Tech and getting blown out by Liberty in their most recent game. One could argue that the soft schedule continues here with a winnable road conference game.

The New Mexico State Aggies are also in Year 2 of their current regime after Jerry Kill led the Aggies to a bowl game and a 7-6 record a year ago. It was a surprising finish and a huge turnaround after they went just 2-10 in the final year of the Doug Martin Era in 2021.

This year hasn’t been so rosy and that was immediately evident in Week 0 when they lost 41-30 to a terrible UMass team that hasn’t won another game since. Kill’s squad has picked up victories against Western Illinois and New Mexico since that opening defeat but was easily handled 33-17 by Liberty and most recently lost 20-17 in a winnable road game at Hawaii. This will mark the Aggies’ first home game in over a month as they last played at Aggie Memorial Stadium on September 2.

The Panthers need just one more win to match their win total from a season ago. MacIntyre’s calling card is supposed to be on defense, and FIU has been solid on that side of the ball, ranking 48th in EPA per play and 54th in success rate. That may not seem great at first glance, but it’s excellent considering the recent futility of this program as a comparison. FIU is 1-4 O/U with the only Over occurring against the worst-scoring defense in the nation in North Texas.

This game projects as one of the slowest-paced games of the year as both teams like to bog the game down offensively while operating at a molasses-like tempo. New Mexico State ranks dead last (133rd) in plays per game at 53 while Florida International isn’t far ahead at 127th while snapping the ball just 59.8 times per contest.

We saw that same style of play last year when FIU came out on top, notching a 21-7 victory in Las Cruces. New Mexico State ran just 58 plays while mustering 3.8 yards per play offensively while FIU ran 65 plays for 5.3 yards per play.

Both defenses have looked fine this year when playing comparable competition and this game projects to be played at a snail’s pace, so I’m playing the Under.

My best bet: Under 51.5 (-110 at Unibet)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Florida International vs New Mexico State same-game parlay

Under 51 (-110)

Florida International +5.5 (-110)

If this matchup is played at a slow tempo as projected, that should favor the underdog catching points. I’ll throw together this two-legger SGP that correlates with the expected tempo and game flow.

I haven’t seen anything from New Mexico State to justify it being favored over a field goal against a conference opponent on a similar footing. Its two wins came against an FCS school and a bad New Mexico team in which it had 11 fewer first downs. That’s enough for me to look in FIU’s direction against the spread.

There’s been no news as of the time of this writing, but it wouldn’t be too surprising if Aggies quarterback Diego Pavia faces disciplinary action after making headlines for the wrong reason this past week. Kill said “We’ll deal with him and deal with internally and move on,” which is too ambiguous to gain any clarity.

While it’s a difficult situation to factor into the line as it may have no consequence whatsoever if he plays his usual role from start to finish, it’s another factor working in favor of FIU in my opinion, and it can’t hurt the Under.

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Florida International vs New Mexico State spread and Over/Under analysis

New Mexico State is a home favorite of between -5 and -5.5 depending on where you look, while the best moneyline price available on Florida International is +175. The total is set between 50.5 and 51.5 with some fluctuation in the market, so be sure to use our college football odds tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager.

Both teams enter this contest well-rested after a Week 5 bye week meant to prepare them for this midweek clash.

New Mexico State’s offense has been the best unit of these two teams to date, ranking 21st in EPA per play and 20th in success rate while ripping off 8.1 yards per play. The offensive line had been tremendous, plowing its way to ranking second nationally in line yards and 21st in stuff rate.

The Aggies have struggled defensively after losing some key pieces from a year ago, ranking 114th in EPA per play and 109th in success rate. While I don’t expect an offensive explosion from FIU, the Panthers have been capable offensively and rank 86th in EPA per play overall and 63rd in EPA per play on standard downs.

It’s a tight handicap, but FIU has been the more well-rounded team to date and has decent but unspectacular numbers on both sides of the ball. While New Mexico State’s offense has been very efficient, it operates at a slow tempo and has the unknown factor of Pavia’s potential disciplinary action incoming.

Even if Pavia starts and plays the whole game, I’m not in a hurry to play his team as chalk until it proves worthy.