Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Predictions

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10 October 2023

Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Predictions

While these offenses may have glaring issues, we're dealing with one of the lowest totals of the week at 41.5. Read our Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State betting picks to find out which way we're leaning.

It’s the most wonderful time of the year: Fall, when football is on TV every day of the week.

Midweek C-USA action rumbled on with a matchup between two conference newcomers as the Sam Houston State Bearkats eye their first win of the season in Las Cruces against the New Mexico State Aggies.

Looking at the college football odds, the Aggies are favored by just over a field goal (-3.5) at home while the total is marked all the way down at 41.5. Is the total dropping too low in a game featuring one of the most efficient offenses in the country and another offense that has been vastly improved over the last two weeks?

Read my free college football picks for Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State below to find out.

Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State best odds

Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State picks and predictions

K.C. Keeler and the Sam Houston State Bearkats have been riding the struggle bus thus far in their first year at the FBS level. They’ve yet to find a win and can mostly blame a dormant offense that ranks dead last in points per game (10.8), yards per game (241), and yards per play (3.0).

The advanced metrics don’t paint a different picture, either, as the Bearkats check in dead last in success rate and second last (132nd) in EPA per play.

The good news is the offense has been improving (nowhere to go but up!) lately, managing its two best performances over the last two weeks. It managed 435 yards two weeks ago against Jacksonville State, a defense currently ranked inside the Top 10 in success rate, and followed that up with 327 total yards on 5.1 yards per play against a respectable Liberty defense.

While those numbers may not seem like much, it’s a drastic and unmistakable improvement after the Bearkats mustered no more than 185 total yards or 3.7 yards per play in any of their first three games this season. Noah Smith has emerged as the go-to player, leading all Group of Five receivers in targets (26) across the last two weeks while accumulating 196 receiving yards and a touchdown.

I’ll bet that Sam Houston continues its offensive improvement in its softest matchup of the season to date. The New Mexico State Aggies have struggled defensively, ranking 105th in EPA per play and 111th in success rate. It’s a red flag anytime you allow UMass to rack up 7.2 yards per play in a game, and surrendering 6.2 yards per play to Florida International isn’t much better.

Sam Houston’s defense has held up its end of the bargain for the most part, checking in at 52nd in success rate and 36th in explosiveness while surrendering just 24.2 ppg.

They played fine against BYU, Air Force, and Jacksonville State but were gashed by its two most difficult opponents — Houston (538 total yards on 6.8 yards per play) and Liberty (448 total yards on 7.2 yards per play). That could be concerning news here against a dangerous New Mexico State attack.

The Aggies have been ruthlessly efficient on offense, managing at least 6.8 yards per play in every game they’ve played this season and averaging a robust 7.9 yards per play on the season — the fourth-best mark nationally. They complement a potent rushing attack (sixth in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate) with a passing attack that can beat defenses over the top if they cheat up and play safeties in the box, ranking sixth in passing explosiveness.

Dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia has been terrific, averaging 10.4 yards per attempt through the air while leading the team with 314 rushing yards. The offensive front has been incredible, ranking second nationally in line yards.

The total keeps dropping here but I’ll buy back on the Over at a low number.

My best bet: Over 41.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State same-game parlay

Over 41.5 (-110)

Noah Smith anytime TD (+100)

Sam Houston +3.5 (-110)

This SGP is a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Over as outlined above. A correlated play with the Over involves Bearkats wide receiver Noah Smith to score a touchdown.

He’s been a volume monster lately, leading the nation with 23 receptions across his last two games. I’m not sure DraftKings is up to date with the latest SHSU football news as they’re currently listing fellow WR Ife Adeyi on the anytime TD board despite the fact he’s out for the year due to injury.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence Smith has gone for nearly 200 yards and a score in the two games in which Adeyi has been out, and I like his chances to find the end zone against an NMSU defense that ranks 109th in EPA per pass and 107th in passing success rate.

The final leg features the Bearkats to cover the spread. They’ve been coming close — very close — to notching their first FBS win and will have another shot to do so here. The offense has been improving and the defense is the second-best unit on the field, so this could be a close game.

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Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State spread and Over/Under analysis

Sam Houston opened as high as +6 at some shops but has since been bet down to +3.5 across the board. The total has also seen some movement, dropping from 44.5 at open to 41.5 at current.

New Mexico State is 3-3 and is looking to become bowl-eligible for the second straight year under Jerry Kill. He’s earned his reputation as a program rebuilder after leading immediate improvement in Las Cruces — last year’s 7-6 finish marked just the second winning season for the Aggies since 2002.

Sam Houston was a powerhouse at the FCS level but took a step back last year as Keeler and the program decided to redshirt a few key players in anticipation of the move up to the FBS level. So far, the Bearkats haven’t won a single game and there’s little proof of concept.

They do have a knack for playing teams close, however, going 3-1-1 ATS while keeping BYU and Air Force within two scores in non-conference play while losing to Jacksonville State and Liberty by a combined 12 points.

New Mexico State likes to operate at a slow tempo, running the second-fewest plays per game (55.2) of any team in the country. This limits the amount of possessions in a game, which theoretically makes it easier for the underdog to stay within the number. Consider this a lean toward Sam Houston and the points.