Flyers vs. Oilers prediction: Bet on a high-scoring shootout in Edmonton
Playing back-to-back games in the NHL is never fun.
It’s even less fun when both games are on the road. And your No. 1 scorer got knocked out of the first contest and probably won’t play in the second — which just happens to be against the highest-scoring team in the league.
A team that employs the best hockey player on the planet.
A team that’s ticked off after losing four straight games (despite scoring 13 goals in the previous three and blowing 3-0 leads in the last two).
And a team that’s in a revenge spot.
Such is reality for the Philadelphia Flyers, who cap a four-game, six-day road trip Tuesday night against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers.
Oddsmakers certainly aren’t giving Philadelphia much of a chance in Edmonton, and understandably so. After all, the Flyers have won on the second night of a back-to-back just twice in 10 tries this season.
We aren’t giving them much of a chance, either. It’s just that we believe there’s even less of a chance these two clubs duplicate the pitcher’s duel they engaged in 12 days ago in Philly.
Odds updated as of 10:40 a.m. ET on Feb. 21.
Flyers vs. Oilers Prediction
Flyers vs. Oilers Prediction: Analysis
It’s very, very tempting to back Edmonton on the puck line (-1.5 goals) Tuesday night.
For starters, the Flyers have to be absolutely gassed after laying it all on the line — literally and figuratively — in Monday’s 4-3 upset victory at Calgary.
Philadelphia’s players blocked an insane 30 shots, yet still let another 35 shots get through to third-string goalie Samuel Ersson (who was making his sixth career NHL start).
On top of that, the Flyers — who were outshot 35-22 — blew a 3-1 third-period advantage, regained the lead with 8½ minutes to play, then held on for dear life.
Not only did Philadelphia expend a ton of energy in Calgary, but it lost right wing Travis Konecny to an upper-body injury late in the game.
Konecny — who scored his team-leading 27th goal Monday and added an assist, giving him a team-high 54 points — reportedly left the locker room with his left arm in a sling.
So in summary, the Flyers have to play their fourth road game in six nights; they likely won’t have their leading scorer; and it’s a date with McDavid and the rested Oilers, who were idle Monday.
Oh, and Philadelphia is 2-8 this season when playing the second night of a back to back (0-3 when coming off a victory).
So, yeah, it sure looks like this has “blowout Edmonton win” written all over it. And yet, we can’t recommend betting the Oilers — be it on the moneyline or puck line — because their defense cannot be trusted.
Here are just the last four games for Edmonton:
6-2 loss at Montreal as a -280 favorite
5-4 shootout loss to Detroit as a -235 favorite (after rallying from a 4-2 deficit)
5-4 shootout loss to the New York Rangers as a -130 favorite (after taking a 3-0 first-period lead)
6-5 loss at Colorado in what was basically a pick-em contest (after once again taking a 3-0 lead)
Yep, the Oilers scored 15 goals in their last four games — including 13 in the last three — and didn’t win any of them.
This all-offense, no-defense thing has been going on all season for Edmonton, which is why the team is barely clinging to a playoff spot.
Of course, one exception was in Philadelphia on Feb. 9, when the Oilers somehow only allowed one goal in regulation … but somehow only scored one. (The Flyers eventually prevailed 2-1 in a shootout.)
Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner and Philly netminder Carter Hart both stood on their heads that night, combining to stop 69 of 71 shots in regulation and overtime.
Skinner and Hart are expected to be in net again Tuesday. And while Skinner likely won’t have to deal with Konecny, Hart might not have to worry about Evander Kane.
Edmonton’s veteran left wing, who scored his team’s only goal in Philly 12 days ago, sat out Sunday’s loss at Colorado with an upper-body injury and is questionable Tuesday.
Despite all this — and despite what is a huge total — we’re still betting the Over in this contest.
Because the Oilers, who lead the NHL with 214 goals, clearly have their offensive mojo back after a mini slump against the Flyers and Canadiens.
Because Hart has been a disaster in two starts since his stellar outing against Edmonton (he yielded four goals each to the Kraken and Canucks, both on the road).
Because Skinner also laid an egg in his only appearance since dominating the Flyers, allowing every goal in the 6-2 loss at Montreal.
Because the Flyers will have rubber legs defensively in this brutal scheduling situation.
And because these are the final scores of Philadelphia’s 10 previous games when playing the back end of a back to back: 4-3 (loss), 3-0 (loss), 5-2 (loss), 5-1 (loss), 5-2 (loss), 6-5 (loss), 4-0 (win), 5-2 (win), 5-3 (loss), 4-3 (loss).
Add it all up, and seven goals seems like the absolute minimum in this contest. So grab the plus-price at Caesars Sportsbook and play it Over.
Moneyline: Flyers (+250) @ Oilers (-320)
Puck line: Flyers +1.5 (+110) @ Oilers -1.5 (-130)
Total: 7 goals (Over +105/Under -125)
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
