Formula 1 picks, odds, race time: 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix predictions, F1 best bets from computer model

Formula One will make its fourth of five stops in North America with the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix on Sunday. Max Verstappen swept the earlier American races in Miami, Montreal and Austin, with a stop in Las Vegas coming in November. The Red Bull Racing superstar has also won four of the last five Mexican Grand Prix races, with Lewis Hamilton winning the other. A victory at the 2023 Mexico City GP would allow Verstappen to break his own record of 15 victories in a single season, which he set last year.

The Mexico City Grand Prix 2023 will start at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday from Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. Verstappen is the -300 favorite (risk $300 to win $100) in the latest 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix odds, followed by Hamilton (+700) and Sergio Perez (+1000). Lando Norris could attract a decent amount of Mexico City GP 2023 bets after making four straight podiums. Before analyzing the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix starting grid and making any Formula 1 picks, be sure to check out the latest 2023 Mexico City GP predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results. It's had a strong history of success in motorsports, correctly predicting nine NASCAR winners since the 2021 season and its projected leaderboards have forecasted winners across multiple racing formats.

The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprise victory. 

The model followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and then nailed his wins again in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It's also nailed all 15 of Verstappen's wins so far in the 2023 season. Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. You can head to SportsLine now to see the complete 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix leaderboard projection.

Top 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City GP predictions

One surprise: The model is fading Hamilton even though he's the second-favorite (+700) and won this race in both 2016 and 2019. However, winning isn't something Hamilton has done at all over the last two years, coming up short in each of his last 41 starts. He has just one podium over his last eight races of the 2023 F1 season, and even if Hamilton finished in the top three in every race the rest of the year, it would still tie for his fewest podiums in a season since 2013.

One also has to question if Hamilton's Mercedes W14 is up to par. He crashed into teammate George Russell at Qatar two races ago, losing one of his tires and being forced to retire from the race. Then, he seemingly had a second-place finish in the following race in Austin, only for a post-race inspection to reveal his car was in violation. That replaced Hamilton's runner-up with a disqualification, which was just the second of his career. Given his long drought without a win and subpar recent results, Hamilton isn't even picked to make the podium according to SportsLine's model. See who else the model is backing and fading at the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix right here.

How to make 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix picks

The model is also targeting multiple longshots getting F1 odds of 33-1 or longer to make surprising surges up the leaderboard. Anyone who backs them could hit it big. You can find out who they are, and see all of the model's F1 picks and predictions, at SportsLine.

2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix odds, field, top contenders

Max Verstappen -300Lewis Hamilton +700Sergio Perez +1000Lando Norris +1600George Russell +2200Carlos Sainz +3300Oscar Piastri +3300Charles Leclerc +3300Fernando Alonso +8000Esteban Ocon +25000Pierre Gasly +25000Yuki Tsunoda +50000Alexander Albon +50000Lance Stroll +50000Daniel Ricciardo +75000Guanyu Zhou +100000Valtteri Bottas +100000Nico Hulkenberg +100000Kevin Magnussen +100000