France vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Picks

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for France thus far at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, but the tournament hosts have recorded three wins in three Pool A games.

That leaves Les Bleus on the cusp of qualification for the quarters and top spot in the pool, provided they don’t slip up in tomorrow’s pool play finale against Italy (3:00 pm ET, Peacock).

No matter how today’s New Zealand vs Uruguay match plays out, the equation is simple for France: win and finish first in Pool A, which will likely mean a quarterfinal clash with defending Rugby World Cup champions South Africa.

2023 Rugby World Cup Pool A Standings

• 1. France – 13 points (win vs New Zealand, win vs Uruguay, bonus-point win vs Namibia)
• 2. New Zealand – 10 (loss vs France, bonus-point win vs Namibia, bonus-point win vs Italy)
• 3. Italy – 10 (bonus-point win vs Namibia, bonus-point win vs Uruguay, loss to New Zealand)
• 4. Uruguay – 5 (loss vs France, loss vs Italy, bonus-point win vs Namibia)
• 5. Namibia – 0 (losses vs Italy, New Zealand, France, and Uruguay)

Given that Les Bleus have lost fallen to Gli Azzurri since 2013 and have won 44 of 47 all-time matchups, anything other than a France win would be the shock of the tournament, far more so than Fiji vs Australia or the near-upset that occurred in last Saturday’s Fiji vs Georgia match.

France vs Italy Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• France -26.5 (-110)
• Italy +26.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• France -10000
• Italy +1600
• Draw +5000

Over/Under

• Over 57.5 (-110)
• Under 57.5 (-110)

Will Focused France Fend Off Italy’s Upset Bid?

Italy’s most recent win over France came in the 2013 Six Nations, when they won 23-18 at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

Since then, there have not been too many close matches between the two teams. One of the rare close encounters was this past February in the opening round of the 2023 Six Nations, as Les Blues escaped Rome with a 29-24 win.

In that match, France led 22-14 early in the second half, but a penalty try and a Tommy Allan penalty put Italy ahead 24-22 with under 20 minutes to play. However, the upset was averted with a Matthieu Jalibert try.

France (FRA) vs Italy (ITA) Rugby Head-to-Head Results

• 2023 Six Nations (February 5 – Stadio Olimpico, Rome): 29-24 FRA
• 2022 Six Nations (February 6 – Stade de France, Saint-Denis): 37-10 FRA
• 2021 Six Nations (February 6 – Stadio Olimpico, Rome): 50-10 FRA
• 2020 Autumn Nations Cup (November 28 – Stade de France, Saint-Denis): 36-5 FRA
• 2020 Six Nations (February 9 – Stade de France, Saint-Denis): 35-22 FRA
• 2019 Rugby World Cup warm-up (August 30 – Stade de France, Saint-Denis): 47-19 FRA
• 2019 Six Nations (March 16 – Stadio Olimpico, Rome): 25-14 FRA
• 2018 Six Nations (February 23 – Stade Velodrome, Marseille): 34-17 FRA
• 2017 Six Nations (March 11 – Stadio Olimpico, Rome): 40-18 FRA
• 2016 Six Nations (February 6 – Stade de France, Saint-Denis): 23-21 FRA

Could Italy cause a similar scare in Lyon? It would represent the most stunning of turnarounds after their 96-17 destruction at the hands of New Zealand last Friday.

Because their hopes of reaching the Rugby World Cup quarters for the first time are still alive, memories should be short in the Italy camp.

But how much will that count for against France?

The closest Italy have ever come to a win on France soil is two-point defeats in 1963 and 2016.

In the latter contest, the opener of that year’s Six Nations, the hosts overcame an 18-10 deficit in the second half to claim a thrilling and controversial 23-21 win at the Stade de France.

Italy at least won’t have to deal with France’s best player, as captain Antoine Dupont, who suffered a fractured cheekbone against Namibia two weeks ago, is sidelined.

As per the latest reports, Dupont could be able to return for the quarters, which would be a huge boost. But for tomorrow’s match, Bordeaux’s Maxime Lucu, who started against Uruguay, will take his place in the starting XV.

France vs Italy Prediction and Picks

Prediction: France to win

Picks: France -26.5 (-110 at Bovada) & second half to be the highest scoring half (-121 at Bovada)

I expect an inspired performance by Italy, but I also expect France to come to play from the start, knowing that giving their opposition even a sniff of hope could be very dangerous.

This is a big spread, but it is one that France can cover, based on their recent results against Italy.

Also, the second half has been the highest-scoring half in ten of the last 13 meetings between these two teams and in 18 of the 32 matches thus far in the 2023 Rugby World Cup (including five of eight Pool A matches), which makes the second pick a very appealing play.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.