New Zealand vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Picks

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29 September 2023

New Zealand vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Picks

By virtue of bonus-point wins over Namibia and Uruguay, Italy enter their final two 2023 Rugby World Cup pool matches in second place in Pool A. But to finally reach the quarterfinals for the first time ever, Gli Azzurri must either pull a major shocker either today against New Zealand (3:00 pm ET, Peacock) or next Friday against France (3:00 pm ET, Peacock).

Italy have been a part of every Rugby World Cup, but they have never advanced beyond the pool stage. Though they have two wins in the bag already, the odds are heavily stacked against them to change that record.

Today’s match in Lyon will be their 16th all-time meeting with New Zealand. All 15 previous meetings are All Blacks wins, and they have outscored Italy 867-140 in the process.

Things are a little less dismal versus this year’s Rugby World Cup hosts, as they have three wins against France. But they have lost to Les Bleus 44 times, including each of the last 13 meetings.

That is some formidable history to have to overcome, but whatever happens in their matchup with the All Blacks, Italy will go into their face-off with France still mathematically in the hunt to reach the knockouts.

As for New Zealand, they got off the mark in the tournament by destroying Namibia by 68 points two weeks ago. They will be expected to brush aside Italy and Uruguay to set up a likely quarterfinal matchup with world number one Ireland, but they are unlikely to want to just do the bare minimum in either game.

New Zealand vs Italy Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

New Zealand -28 (-110)
Italy +28 (-110)

Moneyline

New Zealand -10000
Italy +1800
Draw +5000

Over/Under

Over 57.5 (-105)
Under 57.5 (-115)

Is There Any Hope for Italy Against New Zealand?

Even if they aren’t able to reach the quarters, this Rugby World Cup has already been better for Italy than most have.

The 2019 Rugby World Cup was the first time that they scored 30+ points in back-to-back matches, which they did in wins over Namibia (47-22) and Canada (48-7).

In this tournament, they have replicated the feat with big wins over Namibia (52-8) and Uruguay (38-17). With those wins, they have now tallied 10+ points in pool play in four consecutive World Cup appearances.

But can this progress translate into challenging New Zealand more than they have in most of the previous 15 meetings with the All Blacks?

Well, it doesn’t look too likely, to be honest.

While this New Zealand side isn’t at the top of the list of 2023 Rugby World Cup favorites, it is still a very strong squad. And Italy have rarely ever seriously troubled the All Blacks, who have won the four most recent meetings by 38, 63, 58, and 32 points.

New Zealand vs Italy Prediction and Picks

Prediction: New Zealand to win

Picks: New Zealand -28 (-110 at Bovada) & Italy team total under 14.5 points (-115 at Bovada)

I don’t see much drama or suspense occurring in this match. Fortunately, Italy will still have a chance to make history, when they face a France side missing captain and star scrum-half Antoine Dupont, who suffered a fractured cheekbone in Les Bleus’ win over Namibia last week.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.