Free MLB Picks Los Angeles Angels: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/10/2023

This baseball season, I will be analyzing the Los Angeles Angels and their opponent and formulate a wagering strategy to maximize profit. While not every investment will be in the Angels' favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my in-depth knowledge of the American League West and MLB in general as we focus on the strongest selections. Let Doc's Sports be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.

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We started off our season on Friday night just like the Tampa Bay Ray, perfect. Trout took care of our total base prop of over 1.5 with one swing of the bat, going yard to left-center against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt. The over 9.0 total bet looked a little dicey after the Blue Jay's Bo Bichette hit a 3-run blast in the top of the 7th to give Toronto a 4-3 lead. However, both bullpens settled down and there was only one baserunner for either team for the remainder of the game.

Up next for the Angels is a visit from the National League East and Washington Nationals. They visit Angel Stadium with a record on the season of 3-6. The Nats send lefty Patrick Corbin (0-2 8.00 ERA) to square off against the Angel's own lefty, Jose Suarez (0-1 12.46 ERA). The line with these two probable starters is Washington +210 and Los Angeles -260, with a total of 9.5 runs.

Washington's 2022 season couldn't have been much worse, as they finished the season with Major League's worst record (55-107). Sporting a 3-7 record and last-place position in the NL East, the 2023 Nats are continuing their losing trends.

Yet it isn't completely from their hitting, as their team average of .265 ranks 8th in the MLB and their total hits of 89 puts them in 6th place. Where they are lacking in batting is power, ranking 28th out of 30 teams in home runs (5) and 44th in slugging percentage (.363). Victor Robles is 5th in the NL in average, hitting 12-31 (.387).  They average scoring 4.0 runs a game, more than half a run lower than the MLB average of 4.69.

Their pitching, however, is a completely different story. Their team ERA of 5.42 is 25th in baseball. The 98 hits they have given up is 28th, the 53 earned runs are 26th and their 66 strikeouts are 28th.

Offensively speaking, the Los Angeles Angels are almost the complete polar opposite of the Washington Nationals. Their team average of .244 is 17th in baseball, but their homers (15) are 6th in the league and their slugging percentage of .428 is good enough for 11th place. They score, on average, 6.22 runs per contest, 3rd best in the MLB.

The Angels' pitching has been solid, but not spectacular. Los Angeles has a team ERA of 4.05, 11th in the league. They are 10th in hits allowed (74), 9th in earned runs given up (36), and 17th in strikeouts (80).

Looking at the two starting pitchers, we have an abundance of mediocrity. Patrick Corbin had a couple of really solid years in 2018 with Arizona and in 2019 when he first arrived in Washington. Perhaps he had Covid-19 because, since that season, he has been a shell of himself. He has led the majors in the past two seasons in losses, not exactly a ringing endorsement of a starting pitcher. However, he was drafted by the Angels back in 2009 and traded to Arizona before breaking into the majors. This is the first time he will face the organization that drafted him and all I can think of is Charlie Sheen in "Major League" when he thought he was being sent to the minors and went ballistic in Lou Brown's office. I'm not saying to take the +210 underdog Nats, mind you, but I do think that Corbin could have some extra motivation.

What I am keying on is the over. Extra motivation or not, Corbin does like to give up the gopher ball, 27 of them last year which was the 10th-highest in all of the MLB. Jose Suarez doesn't give up nearly that many, except in the months of March/April, where he averages giving up a home run every 17 batters faced versus 26.5 batters faced in every other month. 

Couple this with the fact that both teams are averaging, together, 10.22 runs and I think that over 9.5 is a very solid play. However, if the total increases to more than 10 runs, I would recommend NOT making the wager.

I am also a few prop bets as well. One of them is Shohei Ohtani's HR Prop. I simulated this game 100,000 in my analytical model and found that Ohtani hit a home run every 4.2 games. At some sportsbooks, his homerun odds for this evening's game are +475. I am taking that prop for .5 Units.

I will also be making a Same Game Parlay of total bases for Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Currently, Ohtani is at 1.5 total bases at +130 and Trout is at 1.5 bases at -110. Ohtani's slugging percentage in April is .581 and Trout's is even better at .603. Combining both of these into a SGP raises the payout to +320. 

Pick: Over 9.5 -110 2 UNITS

Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over .5 home runs +475 .5 UNITS

Pick: Shohei Ohtani/Mike Trout over 1.5 bases SGP +320 .5 UNITS

2023 Season Record:

Total Record: 1-0

Player Prop Record: 1-0

Total: 2-0

Up 3.1 Units ($310)

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