Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/22/2023
Throughout the regular season, I analyzed every Milwaukee Bucks game and gave out my best bets for every contest. Using my knowledge of the team, and the league as a whole, I’ve been able to churn a consistent profit all season long.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Wednesday night, the Bucks leveled the series up at one, beating down on the Heat, 138-122. They took an 81-55 lead into halftime and never looked back. Despite the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks once again looked like the No. 1 seed. While their leading scorer was Brook Lopez with only 25 points, 7 players scored 13+ points in a real team effort. Their 25 3’s were too much for Jimmy Butler and the Heat to overcome, as the series shifts to Miami for Games 3 and 4.
From a betting perspective, we had a perfect night. The Bucks won Game 2 with ease, cashing our moneyline and -6.5 spread bet without a sweat. The final bet was on Brook Lopez, who was the Bucks leading scorer with 25 points, and his 14 first quarter points ensured our Over 15.5 Points bet would also be a sweat free winner. This brings our record to 72-59, good for a 29.4 Unit profit this season.
On Saturday night, the Bucks head down to Miami hoping to take their first lead of the series. Before the series began, the Heat would’ve happily agreed to a 1-1 tie after the first two road games of the series. However, the manner they got beat in Game 2 will be disheartening. While the Heat were able to limit the Bucks effectiveness on the glass, they fell way behind in other crucial stats. They turned the ball over far too often and gave up 30 points off of turnovers. In the transition, the Bucks outhustled them to a 20-9 lead in fastbreak points. This simply can’t happen if the Heat are to compete with the league’s top team.
I fully believed the Bucks would sweep the Heat. And if Antetokounmpo didn’t get injured early in Game 1, it may have still happened. When the Bucks had time to craft a game plan without their Greek superstar for Game 2, it was an easy victory. These 1v8 matchups often end early, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucks get Antetokounmpo back and roll to a gentleman's sweep. The depth and talent in Milwaukee is arguably better than their 2021 championship roster, and the Heat have little to no answer.
The Heat rely on Jimmy Butler to succeed. And against a top team like Milwaukee, that is a losing strategy in the long run. Last season, Butler avenged 27.4 PPG and came within one shot of making the NBA Finals. The Heat have a solid defense and play at the rock-bottom pace. Their slow offense limits the number of shots for the opposition and allows Butler to heat up in isolation. If the Bucks double Butler, his intelligent ball movement and roster of shooters will punish the Bucks from deep.
While the absence of Antetokounmpo has made headlines, the Bucks have the depth down low with Lopez and Bobby Portis to mitigate the loss. On the other hand, the departure of Tyler Herro will hurt the Heat more dramatically. Butler needs quality shooters around him to keep the defense honest, and replacing Herro’s 20.1 PPG will not be easy. They have no guards other than Butler and Herro who can consistently score. Max Strus (11.5 PPG), Kyle Lowry (11.2 PPG), and Victor Oladipo (10.7 PPG) will contribute on the offensive end, but the trio of guards will struggle to make up for the loss of Herro.
This is a pivotal Game 3. If the Bucks pick up where they left off and walk into Miami and dominate the Heat, this series is all but over. However, if the Heat can show life and retake the lead in the series, or at least keep it close, then this one may go right down to the wire. I’m going to be banking on the former occurring.
The Heat are simply not as good at basketball as the Bucks. Plain and simple. There are lots of positives on Miami, but the Bucks are the No. 1 seed in the league for a reason. Their elite defense in the paint and the depth up and down the lineup have allowed the Bucks to prevent easy buckets, and usually come out on top. Antetokounmpo is expected to return for Game 3, while Herro remains out for the series. I’m picking the Bucks to emerge on top in Game 3.
The Bucks are favored to win Game 3 at -210 odds, while the Heat are home underdogs at +180. While I don’t want to get in the habit of taking heavily juiced moneylines, I just don’t see a path to victory for Miami. Butler will need to replicate his 35-point performance in Game 1. And while I expect the Heat to steal one more game, it won’t be Game 3. I’ll show restraint and look at the spread instead.
The Bucks are coming in as 5.5-point favorites, and this is where we’ll find value instead of the moneyline. I’m banking on the Bucks to flex their muscles and dominate Game 3. They need to show Miami that it is still the Bucks’ series to lose, and a 6+ point victory is well within reach.
The second bet will be on the total, and I’ll be going under 220.5. This pick may be surprising as Game 1 finished with 247 points, while Game 2 topped that at 260. However, the Heat will be back home and can dictate the tempo of the game, and they prefer a slow pace of play. I expect Butler and Lowry to eat up a majority of the shot clock and be patient with their shots. Additionally, Antetokounmpo is a fantastic defensive piece, and his return to the squad will also result in fewer 3’s attempted for the Bucks, and a subsequently lower score.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5) 3 Units
Pick: Bucks vs Heat Under 220.5 1 Unit
2022-23 Season Record:
ML Record: 14-10
Spread Record: 19-13
Total Record: 8-12
Player Props Record: 31-22
Total: 72-59
Up 29.4 Units ($2940)
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