Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/19/2023

Throughout the regular season, I analyzed every Milwaukee Bucks game and gave out my best bets for every contest. Using my knowledge of the team, and the league as a whole, I’ve been able to churn a consistent profit all season long.

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On Sunday night, the Bucks lost their opening game of the postseason, falling to the Heat 130-117. The big storyline was Giannis Antetokounmpo’s back injury that kept him out of the contest for the final 3 quarters. The influence Antetokounmpo has on the Bucks cannot be understated, as the ‘Greek Freak’ is responsible for 31.1 PPG, and 11.8 Rebounds. His sudden disappearance is certainly a factor as to why the top overall seed lost at home, but I have to give credit where credit is due; Miami fought tooth and nail for the victory.

Jimmy Butler is a different player in the postseason. He’s averaged 23.8 PPG over his last 4 postseasons and dropped 35 points and 11 Assists in Miami’s big Game 1 victory. He shot 15/27 from the floor, and if he finds an open piece of floor, he will consistently drain the mid-range shot. Bam Adebayo chipped in with 22 points to go along with his 9 rebounds and 7 Assists, and his presence on the glass is critical for Miami to stay in this series.

The Bucks were not the only team dealt a serious blow in the playoff opener, as Tyler Herro has been ruled out for the remainder of the series and won’t be available until the NBA Finals. A gruesome hand injury keeps him off the court, and the influence Butler will have on the backcourt will grow even stronger.

As we saw in 2020, Jimmy Butler is more than capable of putting the Heat on his back and carrying them to a deep playoff run. Despite Herro’s absence, the Heat still have a chance with Antetokounmpo on the shelf. If they can go up 2-0 heading back home, they will be in a fantastic position to advance.

In Game 1, we started off the playoffs with a profitable night. The Bucks cleared their team total of 113.5 by a few points, cashing our biggest bet of the night. Our lone loss was on the Heat-Bucks double result. And while the +200 Heat cashed the first half, the Bucks were unable to mount a second half comeback.

In Game 2, the Bucks will come into the contest with the knowledge that they will be without their Greek superstar and will hope to fare better on the scoreboard. Losing a star midgame often has a larger effect than if they sit out the entire contest, as the secondary options such as Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday know they will have an increased workload and can prepare accordingly.

The advantage on the glass for Milwaukee was just 38-36 in game 1, and the Heat will need to limit the presence of Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis inside. The Bucks lead the league in rebounds, while the Heat find themselves in the bottom five. Those extra possessions are critical for Milwaukee’s success. And while the Heat may not be the best on the glass, they allow the 3rd fewest second chance points in the league. The battle down low may not take center stage. However, whoever can haul in those extra possessions, and score the second chance points, will have a major advantage in this series.

While discussing the inner workings of this matchup is necessary, the Heat rely on one man for their success. The Bucks are still the favorites to advance without their superstar, as they are more than deep enough to make up for his absence. Across the court, Jimmy Butler is the star of the show. If the Heat were missing Butler, this series would be emphatically over. The Heat’s playoff lives depend on Butler to not only hit his shots but also set up his teammates along the way. The 33-year-old refuses to wilt under the spotlight, and will be looking to send the NBA title favorites home early.

The Bucks still went a respectable 11-8 without Antetokounmpo in the regular season and will be coming into this matchup as favorites on their home court. While he’s currently listed as doubtful, I’m expecting Mike Budenholzer to sit him out tonight, and have him ready to go for back-to-back road games in Florida next week.

The first bet for tonight will be on the Bucks Moneyline at -250. Despite Antetokounmpo’s absence, the Bucks will avoid falling into a 0-2 hole in the first round. And considering Herro will also be out for the Heat, this is a great price to pay. The Bucks interior defense is still exceptional, with DPOY finalist Brook Lopez patrolling the paint. Guards Holiday and Middleton will be able to mitigate Butler’s efficiency, and the ironclad mentality of this team will not allow them to lose.

The second bet is on the Bucks spread of -6.5 points. For the same reasons as above, the Bucks shouldn’t let this one get close. They cannot allow the ball to be in Butler’s hands in the clutch and will want to ensure there is adequate breathing room heading into the final possessions. While 6.5 points may feel like a lot for a team that just lost by 13, and is missing their best player, the Bucks have had a few days to digest the injury news and will come out firing on all cylinders.

The final bet is on Brook Lopez Over 15.5 Points. The big man is averaging 15.9 PPG this season. And considering he should be getting more minutes, and more shots than he’s used to, this line feels soft. The Heat play at a slow pace. However, as we saw in Game 1, the Bucks can dictate the tempo on their home court. At 15.5, I feel very comfortable taking Lopez’s Over on points.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline -250 3 Units

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5) 1 Unit

Pick: Brook Lopez Over 15.5 Points 2 Units

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 13-10

Spread Record: 18-13

Total Record: 8-12

Player Props Record: 30-22

Total: 69-59

Up 25.5 Units ($2550)

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