Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/8/2023
This season, Doc’s Sports is the place to find your best bets for every single New York Knicks weekday matchup. While we will not always favor the Knicks, using in-depth knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.
On Tuesday night, the Knicks were bounced from the in-season tournament, after being thumped by the Milwaukee Bucks, by a score of 146-122. I would not want to be in the dressing room listening to head coach Tom Thibodeau after that loss. In what was the most important game of the Knicks young season, the Knicks often elite defense fell to pieces. The Knicks had previously given up 120 points or fewer in every single game this season, but they had no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. Milwaukee shot 60% from deep and from the floor, as Antetokounmpo poured on 35 points, while Malik Beasley and Damian Lillard sank 6 and 5 threes, respectively. The Knicks were outrebounded by one of the poorer glass crashing teams in the association and failed to capitalize on a season-high 41 points from Julius Randle.
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Tonight, the Knicks (12-8) will not be competing in Las Vegas, but their matchup is still quite challenging, as they travel to Boston to take on the Celtics (15-5). There is no doubt Thibodeau will be demanding an increased effort on defense, and a visit to the second-best offense in the league is a fantastic opportunity to test the defensive intensity. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown spearhead a potent Celtics attack. And with Kristaps Porzingis set to return from a lengthy injury, the Celtics will have their interior presence back which will allow Tatum and Brown to cook in the open court more frequently. Believe it or not, Tatum has gotten statistically better in every single season of his career. His PPG (30.1), Rebounds (8.8), and Assists (4.6) have ticked up year over year, and the 25-year-old will feel as though he’s entering his prime. Tatum is an offensive weapon. He has the size and strength to play bully ball against smaller defenders but has the dribbling abilities to create space against a big man in the open court. Between Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, the Knicks have the size at Forward to handle Tatum, and their big men have the footwork to keep it competitive in the open floor. Unfortunately for the Knicks, the Celtics have even more weapons on both ends of the court.
The acquisition of Jrue Holiday has already paid dividends, as we have seen what his absence has done to a once formidable Bucks defense. Holiday is one of, if not the, best on ball defender in the league, as he is routinely tasked with slowing down the opposition’s best guard. Jalen Brunson will undoubtedly be his assignment tonight at TD Garden, and Holiday will feel confident he can keep the elite scorer in check. His offensive impact has declined in Boston, but the Celtics have more than enough scorers to let Holiday focus on his defensive work.
If the Knicks want to stay competitive against Boston, they will need to bring the defensive tenacity that has led them to 12 wins this season and limit the juggernaut offense’s points. The Knicks do a great job at cleaning up the glass, posting the second most rebounds in the league despite playing at one of the slowest paces of play. If they can get a few crucial second chance opportunities, they may be able to keep this one close despite averaging a field goal percentage a full 2 and a half points lower than Boston.
The frustrating aspect of the Knicks loss to Milwaukee is their offense finally came to life, but it was their defense that let them down. The 122 points scored in a loss was the most since last season, and if New York can get the same offensive efficiency from their stars, while improving on the defensive end, they will have a rewarding evening.
However, I just don’t see that happening. The Celtics are a strong offensive team, but their defense is not far behind, either. These two teams have arguably similar defensive records, but the discrepancy on the offensive end will be the difference-maker. Between Tatum, Brown, Holiday, and Porzingis, the Celtics have capable shot makers from all three levels regardless who has the ball. The Knicks will be forced to match up a bigger defender against Jaylen Brown, probably Barrett, who may get cooked in the open floor against the talented guard. Tatum may get the headlines, but the impact of Brown on the offensive end is just as crucial to the Celtics success. The spread is set at 7 points in favor of the home team, and expecting the Knicks to go shot for shot against the Celtics is a tall task. Their defense could always return to its dominance, but odds are the Celtics will inevitably take advantage of a cold streak for the Knicks on the offensive end and pull away with a big run. The backdoor cover will always be in play, but the first bet of the night will be on Boston (-7).
The second bet of the night will be on Randle collecting his rebounds. Randle’s line is set at a mere 8.5 boards, and conserving he’s eclipsed that mark in 3 of his last 4 games, while averaging 10.0 boards on the season, this line feels a bit soft. The Celtics take care of business on the defensive glass, but Randle collects most of his boards on his own defensive glass. Boston fails to crash the glass with their open offensive setup, which will allow Randle to do his part in the paint. It’s a more than reasonable line, and there is no doubt Thibodeau will be demanding extra effort in the hustle stats from his troops tonight.
Pick: Boston Celtics (-7) 2 Units
Pick: Julius Randle Over 8.5 Rebounds -120 2 Units
2023-24 Season record:
ML Record: 4-3
Spread Record: 6-5
Total Record: 2-4
Player Props Record: 5-12
Total: 17-24
Down 10.6 Units
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