Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/27/2023
This season, Doc’s Sports is the best place to find all your New York Knicks betting needs. By using my in-depth knowledge of the Knicks, and the league as whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit on Knicks games by the season’s end.
On Saturday night, the Knicks fell to the Milwaukee Bucks at home, by a score of 130-111. Their interior defense was in shambles, allowing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to score 28 and 20 points, respectively. Their perimeter defense allowed the Bucks to knock down 50% of their 3-point attempts in what was another all around defensive breakdown for New York.
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The Knicks brought home an early Christmas present for their fans, beating the Bucks 129-122 in the Christmas Day matinee. They were able to avenge their previous loss thanks to Jalen Brunson pouring in 38 points and by making the necessary defensive adjustments after playing the Bucks just 2 nights ago.
From a betting perspective, I correctly predicted the Bucks would win the first meeting, before Tom Thibodeau cooked up a superior defensive game plan for the second. The +125 price tag on the Knicks on Christmas day was too good to pass up, and the Knicks victory cashed our only Christmas Day wager.
Tonight, the Knicks (17-12) get back on the road to Oklahoma City, to take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder (19-9). Oklahoma City took down the Western Conference leaders last night, the Minnesota Timberwolves, 129-106, after holding the T-Wolves to just 14 4th quarter points. The young Thunder franchise is ready to challenge for an NBA title, and taking down the league’s best teams has set them up for a comfortable second half of the regular season.
There is no question who the leader of the Thunder is, as Gilgeous-Alexander’s 31 PPG is nearly double the Thunder's next best scorer’s 17.6 PPG. Gilgeous-Alexander can pull up with just an inch or two of space from behind the arc, but he makes most of his money by driving to the hoop and laying it up and in around the opposition’s shot blockers. The 25-year-old’s speed is difficult to contain. And once he picks up momentum, he can usually carve his way to an easy shot. While Gilgeous-Alexander may steal the spotlight, the rest of the Thunder supporting cast is more than capable of making winning plays. All 5 starters average 4+ rebounds per game, as the team defense and energy OKC brings to the court makes them a consistently tough matchup. The Thunder will have tired legs after going shot for shot with the league’s best team last night, and this will be their first difficult back-to-back set of the season (no disrespect to the Pistons and Trail Blazers). It’s their energy that has kept them near the top of the standings, and they will need to go deep into the tank when the Knicks come to town.
New York’s once formidable defense has been consistently breached in December, as the Mitchell Robinson sized hole in the paint has been noticeable. Replacements Isaiah Hartenstein and Jericho Sims have been unable to bring the same quality to the Knicks interior defense, forcing Julius Randle to leave his assignment to support, and allowing their opposition to find the open man on the perimeter. While the Thunder lack a dominating center to take advantage of this weakness, Gilgeous-Alexander’s cutting abilities will ensure the Knicks big men will need to get their feet moving and help out the Knicks defending guards.
It feels as though the Knicks are so close to putting it all together, they just can’t all get hot at the same time. Jalen Brunson got off to a terrific start to the season, while Julius Randle struggled, but as Randle found his groove Brunson took a back seat. In the pair of games against the Bucks, Brunson scored 36 and 38 points, while Randle averaged just 25 PPG across the two meetings. The Knicks have the depth to compensate, but the New York faithful would love to see both their stars get going on the same night.
In this matchup, the Thunder are 3.5-point home favorites, despite New York coming in with a significant rest advantage. The Thunder injury report has yet to be released. However, considering Chet Holmgren was questionable yesterday, and he played, it wouldn’t be surprising to see their rookie take the night off. The Knicks disadvantage inside would be mitigated. And while fading Gilgeous-Alexander is always a scary prospect, at this line I have no choice but to side with the Knicks. Randle and Brunson will be able to counteract Gilgeous-Alexander, and the rest of the Knicks support cast is more than talented enough to outwork the Thunder. The recent defensive lapses for the Knicks will ensure Thibodeau demands maximum effort from his troops. And while the Thunder may jump out to an early lead, their tired legs will eventually catch up to them. At underdog odds, we will be playing the Knicks +3.5 point spread, and their +130 moneyline too.
The next bet of the night will be on Isiah Hartenstein’s point total of 8.5. Whether or not Holmgren suits up, Hartenstein will be tasked with a tired and battered opponent, or a weak Jaylin Williams as his assignment. He should have no problem cashing in a few second chance points on route to a cash, as he’s scored double-digit points in back-to-back contests. The Thunder’s fast pace of play and electric home crowd will ensure plenty of shots are taken, and Hartenstein will do enough to cash this generous line.
Pick: New York Knicks (+3.5) 1 Unit
Pick: New York Knicks ML +130 1 Unit
Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 points +100 1 Unit
2023-24 Season record:
ML Record: 6-3
Spread Record: 8-8
Total Record: 3-5
Player Props Record: 9-16
Total: 26-33
Down 7.0 Units
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