Georgia vs Alabama prediction: SEC Championship picks, odds

Can Alabama pull off the improbable and overcome its early season loss to Texas to make the College Football Playoff? That's the question on everybody's mind before the 2023 SEC Championship Game kicks off on Saturday. Standing in the Crimson Tide's way is a familiar foe, No. 1 Georgia. While the Bulldogs seem unbeatable, let's not forget Nick Saban's squad was the last to stun Kirby Smart's men in the 2021 SEC Championship Game.

The conference title is set to kick off at 3 p.m. CT from Atlanta, Georgia. CBS will carry the national broadcast with Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson on the call.

Let's take a closer look at the odds, highlight a pick and make a prediction for the SEC title with potential College Football Playoff implications on the line:

Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)

Time/TV: 3 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Georgia -5.5

Over/Under: 55.5

Moneyline: Georgia -220, Alabama +180

TOP PICK

Alabama-Georgia OVER 55.5 total points (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Alabama has been an underdog just three times since 2010, each instance came against Georgia. When the Bulldogs close as betting favorites before the 2023 SEC Championship begins, it'll mark the fourth time the Crimson Tide have been on the wrong of the odds. Nick Saban's side is 2-1 straight up during that span.

While trends tell us that we should back the greatest coach of all time in this contest, I want no part of the spread. Georgia has proven to spectators under Smart that it will not be intimidated by anybody, including Alabama. But Smart has only defeated his former mentor once straight up in four tries.

It's been said all season that the Bulldogs aren't the team they were last year — or even the year before that — but I'm here to tell you otherwise. You'd be hard-pressed to find a quarterback who has come into his own as much as Carson Beck this season. Georgia shows up when necessary and coasts when it can.

All of that being said, I'm not going to recommend betting against Saban either. He's shown time and time again that it's unwise to pick against his program. Thus, even though taking Georgia -5.5 on a shrinking spread is tempting, we're going to play the total instead.

Alabama totals are 9-3 to the over this campaign and Georgia totals are split at 6-6 on the season. Further, the SEC Championship Game has seen 55.5 points or more scored in each of the last three years and four of the last five.

Both defenses have shown they can be exposed by excellent quarterback play, and the Bulldogs have shown they can score at will on nearly anybody in the country. There are too many athletes across the board for this one to be low-scoring, I would think, I like the over.

Prediction: Georgia 34, Alabama 26