Alabama vs Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Picks
Will Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels finally get their win over Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide in College Football Week 4 on Saturday? We’ve made our ALA vs MISS prediction, although odds suggest one team has a clear edge in this SEC opener.
Alabama is a 7-point favorite in the latest Bama vs Misssipisi odds, with the game total offered at 55.5 points. The Crimson Tide have won seven straight against the Rebels, including a 30-24 victory last season in Oxford.
Let’s analyze the Alabama vs Ole Miss odds and offer our prediction for this Week 4 SEC college football game.
Alabama vs Ole Miss Odds
In the Alabama vs Ole Miss odds, the Crimson Tide are -285 moneyline favorites, giving them a 74% implied win probability. The Rebels come back as +230 underdogs, giving them a 30% implied win probability.
Kickoff for Saturday’s game is 3:30 PM EST at Bryant-Denny Stadium. CBS will carry the broadcast.
Crimson Tide Are Unrecognizable
The 2023 version of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks nothing like the version of the team that has dominated college football for the past decade. Nick Sabana’s team is 2-1 through the first three games, but narrowly avoided an upset loss to lowly South Florida in Week 3.
The Crimson Tide secured a 17-3 road win against South Florida last Saturday, but didn’t come close to covering the 34.5-point spread. The game was tied 3-3 at halftime, and the team cycled through two quarterbacks after already benching previous starter Jalen Milroe prior to the start of the game.
The good news for Alabama is Milroe is starting against Ole Miss, as the dual-threat pivot has looked like the best option out of Alabama’s three quarterbacks. In his two starts, he’s thrown for 449 yards and five TDs, while rushing for 92 yards and two scores on the ground.
Roydell Williams leads the team in rushing with 177 yards, while WR Isaiah Bond has been the top receiver, catching 10 passes for 152 receiving yards. Defensively, the Tide are allowing a decent 309.7 yards and 14.7 points per contest.
Rebels Are Rolling
Ole Miss has started the season in impressive fashion, posting a 3-0 record and outscoring their opponents by a 158-50 margin. The Rebels put on a strong showing in their most recent game against Georgia Tech, a 48-23 victory at
Quarterback Jaxson Dart is having a terrific start to his junior campaign, throwing for 852 yards and seven touchdowns, while also leading the team with 213 rushing yards. Wide receiver Jordan Watkins has been Dart’s favorite target, accumulating 290 receiving yards thus far.
Defense is typically an area of concern for the Rebels, and it’s no different heading into the 2023 matchup vs Alabama. The team is allowing 350 yards and 16.7 points per game. which places them in the bottom half of the SEC in both categories.
Mississippi has been a bettors’ friend this season, covering the spread in all three games so far. While they’ve covered in six of the past 12 meetings with Alabama, they’ll need to break a brutal trend if they want to actually win the game. Ole Miss is 1-13 in their last 14 trips to Tuscaloosa.
Alabama vs Ole Miss Prediction
We don’t doubt Nick Saban will have his team ready to go for their conference opener, but it’s hard to put our faith in a team that has looked this bad through the first three games. The Rebels, on the other hand, are averaging an SEC-best 52.7 points per game, largely due to the play of Jackson Dart.
Milroe is the quarterback you want to be starting if you’re betting Alabama, but Bama’s offensive line has been problematic for several years now and it’s affecting quarterback protection and the team’s overall performance. For the first time under Saban, the Tide has allowed five sacks in back-to-back games.
Ole Miss defensive coordinator Pete Golding, formerly with Alabama, is motivated to defeat his old team and is familiar with their strategies. The Rebels should be able to do enough defensively to keep the Alabama offense in check, especially considering the Tide’s lack of explosive playmakers.
Alabama has won seven straight games against Ole Miss, but the times are changing. The Crimson Tide recently suffered their worst home loss since 2004 (against Texas), and now there’s a strong chance they pick up their first back-to-back home losses since Saban’s first season.
Alabama vs Ole Miss Pick: Rebels +7 (-110), Sprinkle: Mississippi ML (+230)
