Grafton tips: Going for gold with Shailer
Paul Shailer’s gelding Gold Merchant is perfectly placed and timed to the minute to take out Tuesday’s staying race at Grafton.
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
GRAFTON
BEST BET
Race 3 No. 2: Gold Merchant
Turned in the best run of the preparation so far when he got to 2000m; the extra 235m this time is ideal.
NEXT BEST
Race 4 No. 2: Red Cobra
Winless after 12 starts but is ready to strike now off the back of two consecutive seconds at the provincials.
VALUE
Race 5 No. 7: More Elements
Well-bred gelding, placed two of four and resumes with the aid of two trials. Trip suits.
DAILY DOUBLE
1st Leg: 7
2nd Leg: 10
QUADDIE
Race 4: 2
Race 5: 2,7
Race 6: 4,5,7,9
Race 7: 5,10
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Raymond Spokes has enough horsepower underneath him to take out the TAB Jockeys Challenge.
INSIDE MAIL
RACE 1
Talma I Love Her has finished runner-up at two of her five starts and a case could be made that she ran quite well in the other three. Her barrier looks a bit sticky on paper but it might not be nearly as bad as all that come raceday. Dizzy Dee is a grand-daughter of Silver Shadow/Gimcrack and Brian Crowley winner Katima. This particular filly was placed in her two recent trials and looked to have plenty to offer in both. Rinnero is finding near impossible to breakthrough but will get there one day.
Bet: Talma I Love Her to win, Dizzy Dee to place, box trifecta 1,7,8,11
RACE 2
Sir Ravanelli is well known outside the Northern Rivers thanks to his semi-regular Sydney visits, one of which was for the Country Championships Final earlier in the year. Fast forward to more recent times and the Tuncurry grey was 7th of 13 at Warwick Farm but only beaten three lengths in a 1:02.76 seconds 1100m. Local Fortyfive Parklane has won 4 from 8 here at Grafton and 2 from 3 at the track and distance. Look A’Like has finished first or second 15 out of 30. Bel Academy has 6 wins and 6 placings from 22 starts. He excels at the venue and best of all, he is the reigning Kirby winner.
Bet: Sir Ravanelli to win
RACE 3
Gold Merchant is a son of Merchant Navy out of a High Chaparral mare. The point there is that the Paul Shailer trained bay has some stamina in his genes and that is the way he races. He turned in the best run of the current preparation last start at Coffs Harbour when he got out to 2000m. The extra 235m today is the key. Polenitsa has remained consistent this whole prep without winning. Nature Boy on the other hand is on a hat-trick. Seething Chuck is also a last start winner and has won up to 2100m.
Bet: Gold Merchant to win
RACE 4
Red Cobra drew 17 at Muswellbrook on Monday whereas he came up with box one here at Grafton. The Damien Lane-trained gelding is winless after 12 starts but has placed on five occasions. Most importantly, he has run second as his last two - both at the provincials. Absolutely gets his chance to post a well-earned and seemingly imminent first win this afternoon. Kristithegreat made a good fist of the step up from 1300m on debut to 1720m here at the second career outing. Drawn well for the first time. Tootsie is very fit indeed and has some depth to her form.
Bet: Red Cobra to win, exacta 2 to beat 1
RACE 5
More Elements is by More Than Ready out of an El Prado mare whose foals include the 2019 Scone Cup winner, Special Missile. More Elements has raced four times for a second and a third, both at home at Murwillumbah. Trialled twice for the return in what looks a suitable race. Ottoman Empire has a fascinating pedigree being line-bred to Zabeel and boasts the great Richebourg as his third dam. As for the ‘punt’, the fact that it is 1425m at home first-up makes this doable. Kimmela has a wide draw but went well first-up over 1200m.
Bet: More Elements to win, Ottoman Empire to place, quinella 2,7
RACE 6
Much More Torque has raced twice for Brett Dodson. He ran on well at the end of 1200m at his first one under the new management which laid the groundwork for his barnstorming win at Taree over 1300m at the next one. You would imagine Grafton will only suit him better and logic suggests the 1425m is spot on the money. Tortilla was ordinary at best at his first two starts then the blinkers go on for the third and - boom! Gee whiz that was impressive last start at Armidale. Discreet Lady was $71 in the Highway on Oct 7 but ran a huge race.
Bet: Much More Torque to win, box trifecta 4,5,7,9
RACE 7
Shore To Happen is one of the more interesting runners on the card. She races in the Gall colours (think I Am Invincible and many others). She was with Ron Quinton very early on, but didn’t race. She went to Queensland and trialled twice ahead of her debut at Murwillumbah for Renita Beaton. She won the race and was in fact, super impressive. Can’t wait to see how she measures up in a pretty high class Class 1 (before scratchings). Sir Boo has raced here at home twice for a win and a third. His only other run was a closing fourth to Crop Duster who goes rather well. Not sure how many Matthew Dunn will start here in the last but Adelaide Fever has the draw and the form to play a role.
Bet: Shore To Happen to win, quinella 5,10
