Graham Cunningham on the big questions at the upcoming Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York

York poised to pop the cork on British racing’s final summer showpiece

Guineas weekend hit by a monsoon. Derby day diluted by train strikes and Animal Rising Herberts. Royal Ascot marked by a rake of longshots that had bookies hauling it home in wheelbarrows. And Goodwood cut short on day five after storms that were more gruelling than glorious. But never fear, York is here. And the forecast for this year’s Sky Bet Ebor Festival is four days of world-class racing amid the usual quota of compelling questions.

Paddington- the new Iron Horse or due for derailment?

Changing your view as evidence builds is vital and, with four G1 wins in ten weeks, Aidan O’Brien’s colt is doing a fair impression of the 2000 International winner Giant’s Causeway. But the chances of me wading in at odds on next Wednesday are slim. Paddington has so much of what you look for in a good horse and a York win would leave him only one shy of Sea The Stars’s record of six elite wins in a single season. But the suspicion that he is ‘just’ a very good colt rather than a great one nags away. He isn’t top on BHA ratings for his next test and Timeform only make him top by crediting him an extra 2lb for his Eclipse win. Perhaps, like STS, he’s just doing enough. Still, I suspect I’ll be paying to find out.

Can the fiery Mostadhaf stand proud again?

Maybe the form is a little shaky but you don’t win the Prince of Wales’s by four lengths without being exceptional. That said, the key question could relate to how the fiery Frankel five-year-old handles himself. I can’t recall seeing a horse win a big G1 after behaving as coltishly as Mostadhaf did at Ascot. It clearly didn’t dampen his ardour for racing – and he’s now second only to the mighty Equinox in the Longines World Rankings with a mark of 128 – but his paddock demeanour at York will be fascinating to observe.

How do we assess Desert Crown?

With difficulty. His emphatic Derby form has a few whiskers now and things plainly haven’t gone smoothly since he was worn down late by Hukum in Sandown’s Brigadier Gerard. The fact that Desert crown traded at 1.1 entering the final furlong that night shows he’s still capable of gliding through against high-class opposition. Sealing the deal in this hard school won’t be easy but he adds a lot to the mix and there remains a sneaking suspicion that a few of his rivals have gathered their roses without having to take on the very best available.

Any chance of a shock?

Yes, there is. Nashwa and Alflaila both have less to prove than current long prices suggest. Nashwa has won several big races and had excuses in several more, including when set a lot to do in the Nassau recently. She deserves to be more like 12-1 than the 25s available in several places for her first battle with the boys, while Alflaila is under the radar but has worked his way to a mark of 120 in winning his last four. York suits him well and he’s capable of reeling off a very powerful finish when the pace is on.

Savethelastdance – is 9/4 a fair price?

Her name suggests she could be a Drifter (Google it, kids) and there are two ways of looking at her Yorkshire Oaks prospects. On one hand she’s the sole G1 scorer among those likely to line up on Thursday but on the other she took an age to find full stride on testing ground in the Irish Oaks, needing a Ryan Moore special to foil Bluestocking in the final strides. A pacemaker or cheekpieces might help but there are several viable alternatives.

Does Bluestocking head the list of dangers?

She probably does and the way she kicked on before being outstayed by Savethelastdance at the Curragh suggests she has every chance of reversing that form. But this looks more closely matched than ante post markets suggest. The canny Paddy Twomey seems to be expecting a bold run from reliable Rosscarbery, while the talented if slightly tricky Stay Alert ran the race of her life despite a torrid run when chasing home Via Sistina in the Pretty Polly last month and looks much better than a 16-1 chance if she can build on that.

Is the Princess ready to be Queen of Speed again?

You bet she is. Not all 1000m races are alike and pan-flat York demands a potential Nunthorpe winner should be able to rip through the second and third furlongs in under 21s before coming home in sub 23s as the holdup horses finally find full stride. Highfield Princess made that difficult task look light work when bolting up in this race last year and returns as good as ever after crushing her King George Stakes rivals at Goodwood. On a sound surface she’s a solid 6/4 chance to join Borderlescott, Mecca’s Angel and Battaash as a back-to-back Nunthorpe winner. And if it’s on the soft side she ought to be more like even money.

Who are the Quinella candidates?

Now this is where the weather could play a key role. Bradsell’s narrow defeat of Highfield Princess in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot makes him the obvious danger as he returns to the scene of his devastating debut win. But, if the rain stays away, keep a close eye on Regional and Twilight Calls. Regional is thriving after impressive wins in lower grade at York and Haydock, while Twilight Calls has seldom had the set-up that suits him ideally but has long looked the type to scale new heights once he gets in a race where the pace is frenetic.

What wins the Ebor?

Sweet William is 4lb well in after emphatic wins at Newbury and Goodwood but needs a few to come out, as does Plate runner-up Golden Rules. Real Dream is solid after bolting up on his 1m6f debut at Ascot but Scampi is on the menu again and 16/1 looks a very fair each-way price. Andrew Balding’s gelding is only 42 on the list but his Jorvik Handicap win at the Dante meeting earned him a golden ticket to the Ebor. This smooth-travelling holdup horse is in the form of his life after thwarting bang-in-form Wooton’Sun, the pair a dozen clear, in the Shergar Cup. Scampi is clearly still fairly treated with a 4lb penalty. His breeding suggests the Ebor trip will suit and and his Raceshare owners could be in for quite a day if he gets the breaks at the right time.

What’s on the menu in York’s hospitality boxes?

Tasty summer salads, chilled white wine and plenty of industry bigwigs gassing about recent developments.

It’s possible the BHA contingent will reflect on last Wednesday’s online media briefing – chaired by Head of Comms Robin Mounsey and featuring Chief Exec Julie Harrington, Chief Operating Officer Richard Wayman and Director of Comms and Public Affairs Greg Swift – with a sense of positivity.

Plans for Levy Review, Premier Racing and the 2024 Fixture List all passed off with little critical questioning and Harrington’s latest whip update – which revealed that there have only been two instances of three hits over the permitted level from over 25,000 Flat rides since the new rules came into force – provided a timely counter to those who tend to dismiss the drive to modernise out of hand.

But there was one jarring note when a panel member responded to a question about a perceived lack of industry and punter confidence in the current BHA team by saying “there is a world of difference between online chuntering – of which there is plenty – and dissatisfaction among stakeholders in the sport.”

There’s no need to name the panel member with such a dismissive approach to those who express criticism of the way British racing is run using online platforms. Suffice to say the remark was Swiftly clarified but it beggars belief that barely a trace of the concern that runs through various levels of this complex sport hasn’t permeated the walls of Holborn Gate.

I don’t think I’m a BHA knocker – or an online chunterer - by nature. Nor am I blind to the challenges of trying to herd racing’s quarrelling cats at a time of unprecedented pressure.

But three days on from Wednesday’s strangely unchallenging chinwag with the British racing media, I’m still perplexed that Harrington insists that “I really don’t feel that lack of confidence.”

Lydia Hislop seemed to take a different view in a skilfully crafted Sporting Life feature this week in which she cited BHA swithering over whip rules as “symptomatic of a wider dynamic in which a lack of confidence in the regulator has taken hold.”

And Chris Cook used a rasping Racing Post piece on the way the Tory government is treating racing to argue that “the BHA isn’t very good at fighting talk except when defending its own record against criticism – that’s when you see real fury.”

The fact that such pointed prose from two of the sport’s most measured commentators doesn’t seem to move the needle on the BHA’s Nichter Scale is alarming but, hey ho, it’s off to York we go.

You get a superb view of everything that goes on from the balcony of those plush boxes high in the Melrose Stand. Whether some of their corporate inhabitants have any appetite to hear what’s being said and written by various parties down at ground level is another matter.

Burrow clan’s spirit a joy to behold

Out of the mouths of babes and fearsome prop forwards……

A beaming Barrie McDermott delivered a couple of stark yet striking sentences that struck a deep emotional chord while reflecting on Macarone’s hugely popular win in the colours of the Rob Burrow Racing Club at Beverley on Thursday.

“He’s not been burdened by the inevitability of what’s in front of him,” said the former Wigan and Leeds enforcer of his former team mate. “He’s campaigning so that those who follow him have a little bit of an easier path.”

Tragically, we know what lies ahead for Burrow, whose battle with Motor Neurone Disease has resonated around the world in recent years. And we know that, having paid the usual tributes after those memorable Beverley moments, some of us will revert to grumble mode long before the Ebor starter drops his flag.

But watching Rob look on proudly as his young son Jackson held the trophy aloft on the Westwood is an image that won’t be easily forgotten.

A lot of racing folk seem burdened their own sense of inevitability these days but I don’t necessarily share that view.

We lie on the cusp of one of the great weeks in the racing calendar. And if we can borrow an ounce of the spirit that propels the indomitable Burrow Brigade forward then this strange old game will be thrilling those who love it for a good while yet.

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