Grand National Trends: Key Info to Base Your Bets On Today
Everyone that bets on the Grand National wants to find a way to maximize their winnings and guess correctly more often. Trying to pick one winner out of the 40 runners that are scheduled to race this Saturday at Aintree Racecourse isn’t easy. You either have to be very lucky or know what you are doing. We decided to give you a little help and present the top Grand National trends you should focus on when choosing your favorite for the race.
What are positive Grand National trends?
No matter what, there are a few trends out there that are considered positive. Betting on the favorite isn’t always the correct tactic because it was nine years before Tiger Roll’s 2019 Grand National victory as the favorite. Here are some of the positive Grand National betting trends:
- Horses with the best recent record are 8 years or older in most cases.
- Horses that finished “unplaced” last year often do well.
- Irish-bred horses have been doing well recently in the Grand National, and the same goes for Irish-trained horses.
- Always look for horses that raced over hurdles earlier in the season and horses that won over 3 miles previously.
- Look for winners or horses that placed in National races.
- Almost all of the winners in the Grand National in the last 14 years were racing for the first year.
What are negative Grand National trends?
There are some negative trends that happen once in a million, or in Noble Yeats’ cast one time since 1940. Another example we can give is that the last time a mare won the Grand National was back in 1951. Here are the top negative Grand National betting trends you should look out for:
- Don’t look at horses older than 13 because they don’t have a good National record.
- Runners that had a hard race at Cheltenham Festival before the Grand National almost never do well in the big race.
- Also, only three horses that won the Cheltenham Festival the same season took the Grand National since 1961.
- Horses with latest records older than 50 days (about 1 and a half months) don’t fare well in the Grand National.
- Don’t bet on past winners or past placed horses in the Grand National because they often don’t do it for a second time.
- Don’t look at runners who have fallen or were unseated more than a few times.
Different types of Grand National trends used with betting
There are a few things experienced bettors focus on while looking for the perfect runner to bet on for the Saturday race. The race has been an annual event for more than 170 years, so there are a lot of statistics out there. At the end, you should decide which trends to focus on more and which not.
Betting based on weight or stamina
Stamina is very important, and no matter how good the horse is, if they lack stamina, they probably won’t place in the Grand National. Check out the last run of the horse you are circling because most winners had their last race no more than 48 days (about 1 and a half months) ago. Weight is also a big factor when you are choosing a favorite, so don’t ignore it.
Betting based on age
An experienced horse is always better than a newbie, and looking back at the Grand National history, we see that we should focus on horses 8 years or older. You should also avoid betting on horses 13 or older because they aren’t in their prime anymore and the stats show it.
The Irish factor
Recent trends show that horses from Irish yards (8 of 15) and Irish-bred ones (17 of 22) are the winners in most cases, so if you see one on the roster, don’t overlook them. Pay attention because the Irish factor matters for the 2023 Grand National.
Betting based on experience with the course
If you are looking for favorites, don’t ignore horses that have previous experience on the Grand National fences. If any horse has previous experience, you should look at them closer because it matters.
