Grizzlies vs Bucks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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08 April 2023

Grizzlies vs Bucks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

Milwaukee may have nothing to play for and is resting its most important players — but our free NBA picks have reason to believe that you shouldn't automatically assume the Memphis Grizzlies will roll through the Fiserv Forum tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks' nonchalant approach to securing the top seed last season ultimately cost them, having to play Game 7 of their playoff series on the road against the Celtics — a game they went on to lose.

They took no chances with that this year and after their win on Wednesday, have secured the East's top seed, as well as the NBA's best record.

They will opt to rest the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez tonight when they host the Memphis Grizzlies, who are lofty road favorites (per NBA odds) as they look to lock up the Western Conference's No. 2 seed.

Will the Grizzlies take care of business and give themselves some opportunity to rest ahead of the playoffs or will Milwaukee's depth be enough to make Memphis work for it?

Grizzlies vs Bucks best odds

Grizzlies vs Bucks picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Bucks are the NBA's best team. At least, that's the distinction they earned on Wednesday night after defeating Chicago to clinch the Eastern Conference's top seed as well as the NBA's best regular season record.

And it has been well deserved.

A 29-17 start is nothing short of excellent, but for a team with championship experience and aspirations, it was simply not enough. Plus, if you ask any Bucks fan, their play never felt as good as their record indicated at the time — and the metrics backed that up.

Through January 21, Milwaukee ranked just 11th in net rating, largely due to a 24th-ranked offensive rating. The Bucks' third-ranked defensive rating was the glue holding together the team up to that point, but it was clear that the offense was going to cause problems if it wasn't addressed.

Granted, there were injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton during those early months (Middleton will be out tonight with a re-aggravation of his knee), and their returns certainly helped, but there were more fundamental issues plaguing the team.

Consistent shot creation has always been an issue when it wasn't being generated by Jrue Holiday or Giannis in transition (they ranked 24th in assist-to-turnover ratio at the time), and 3-point shooting was inconsistent (18th).

The emergence of Brook Lopez as a high-end scorer (19.9 points per game since March), the debut of Joe Ingles (7.0 ppg, 3.2 apg, 41.3% 3P) and the addition of Jae Crowder at the trade deadline (38.6% 3P this season) has helped re-shape Milwaukee into the offensive powerhouse it was always capable of being.

And while the Bucks are without Giannis, Holiday, Middleton, and Lopez tonight, they still have more than enough to make the Memphis Grizzlies work to lock up the West's second seed.

That may seem like a lofty ask at first, but the Bucks have gone 7-2 in their last nine games without Giannis. They won those seven games by an average of 8.9 points, and their only losses were against the Warriors and the Cavaliers — the league's best team according to net rating this year.

My best bet: Bucks +8 (+110 at DraftKings)

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Grizzlies vs Bucks spread analysis

The Grizzlies opened as 6-point favorites and although some absences were expected from the Bucks, the official announcements caused the spread to push as far out as -8.

Milwaukee is not only the league's best team in the win-loss column, but it also has been the best team against the spread this year. The Bucks' 43-31-6 ATS record is good for a 58.1% cover rate... and at home, they're an even 60.5% (23-15-2).

Tonight also marks the first team this season they will be home underdogs.

The Grizzlies have gone 36-42-2 ATS this year, with the 46.8% cover rate the eight-lowest in the NBA. On the road, they've gone just 13-25-1, which is the third-worst 34.2% cover rate.

Memphis has also covered just once in its last six games and is 10-17 ATS when favored by seven or more points.

Grizzlies vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 228 and has since moved to as high as 229.5.

The Bucks are an even 40-40 on totals this year, while at the Fiserv Forum they have gone 24-16 towards the Over, good for the fifth-highest Over rate at 60%.

As an underdog, however, they have gone 9-5 to the Under — the highest rate in the league — and the Over has cashed in five of their last seven games.

Memphis has gone 42-36-2 towards the Under this year, with their 53.9% rate of Unders being the fourth-highest on the year. On the road, they have gone 22-17 that way (56.4%) and as favorites, they have played similarly (34-27-2, 55.7%).