Grizzlies vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 December 2023

Grizzlies vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Grizzlies have struggled to defend from beyond the arc this season, and the Clippers are liable to punish them, with or without Kawhi Leonard. See why our NBA picks are backing an offensive explosion tonight.

With Ja Morant back, the Memphis Grizzlies are a threat to compete in the West once again, and who better to test them than the Los Angeles Clippers in a Friday night showdown of superstars.

That’s what it was supposed to be at least, but with Morant dealing with an illness and Kawhi Leonard missing the last three games with a hip contusion, the status of both players remains up in the air. The NBA odds have the Clippers as 7.5-point home favorites despite the Grizz being on a four-game win streak with Morant in the lineup.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Clippers on Friday, December 29.

Grizzlies vs Clippers odds

Grizzlies vs Clippers predictions

Regardless if Ja Morant and Kawhi Leonard suit up, this is a tough Clippers offense that should challenge the Grizzlies enough to keep the Over in play.

Memphis is coming off a disheartening defensive performance against the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets in which Taylor Jenkins’ squad gave up a jaw-dropping 142 points. And while L.A. doesn’t have the same firepower, especially if Leonard doesn’t play, it does have Paul George and James Harden, who are having respectable seasons in the back halves of their careers.

George and Harden are both shooting over 40% from three, and this is a Grizzlies defense that’s allowed the second-highest 3-point percentage in the league (38.9%). The Grizzlies have also given up the most threes per game to small forwards this season (3.39) and the sixth-most to point guards (3.44).

So, while George and Harden are no longer in their primes, they’ve proven they can still put up points, especially against teams who struggle to defend the three. While neither is what they used to be, they’re coming off a performance against the Charlotte Hornets where they combined for 54 points and hit 11 of 23 threes. This season, they’ve combined to average 40.6 points per game and 6.1 threes per game.

And if Leonard plays, it will only make hitting the Over easier. The five-time All-Star is the Clippers’ leading scorer with 24.4 points per game and is hitting 42.9% of his threes this season.

It hasn’t only been those three future Hall-of-Famers either. L.A. is averaging 116.6 points per game, 11th-best in the league, and has Norm Powell, Ivica Zubac, and Russell Westbrook all averaging over 11 points per game. Powell is also hitting 44.2% of his threes. The Clippers’ mentality all season has been that whoever is on the court has the ability to lead the offensive charge.

“We're a next-man-up, keep-the-ship-going (team),” George said after the win against Charlotte. “When (Leonard) gets back, he'll be healthy, and we will continue to rock. Regardless of who's in or who's out, our job is to continue to keep going.”

It’s an offense that’s going to be difficult for the Grizzlies to slow, with or without Leonard. Memphis is allowing 113.4 points per game this season, 13th in the league, but has allowed at least 115 in 14 of 30 games, including each of its last three.

The biggest key to the Over hitting will be Morant, who was playing as well as ever before missing the game against the Nuggets. Jenkins sounded somewhat optimistic about his superstar point guard suiting up against the Clippers saying that “hopefully he's feeling better.”

With Morant missing the first 25 games of the season due to a suspension, the Grizzlies offense had looked lost. It’s currently last in the league in points per game with 107.3, but in the four games Morant has played, that number jumps to 118 per game.

The average total of the Grizzlies’ last five games has been 233.8, and with Morant out there, the Over can rely less on Memphis playing bad defense and more on its offense keeping pace with L.A. In four games, Morant’s averaging 28.8 points per game and has scored at least 30 in three of four outings.

He’s the key to the whole offense, but that’s not to say Memphis doesn’t have reinforcements to help him, or step up if he sits. Both Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are averaging over 21 points this season and should be able to do enough to keep the Over in a healthy position if Morant doesn’t play.

My best bet: Over 225.5 (-110 at bet365)

Grizzlies vs Clippers same-game parlay

Over 225.5

Grizzlies +7.5

With or without Morant, the Grizzlies are in for a tough test against a Clippers team that plays both ends of the court well. L.A.’s 11th in points per game and ninth in points allowed per game and by far the best team Morant will have played in his first few games back.

However, with Ja out there, and it sounds like he will be, Memphis can keep it close enough to cover. In Morant’s four games this season, the Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS and 3-0 as underdogs.

Memphis was able to upset the New Orleans Pelicans twice with Morant, first as 9-point dogs and then as 5-point dogs.

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Grizzlies vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis

Clippers -7.5 at +101. L.A. has gone 14-16 ATS this season and failed to cover in each of its last three games without Leonard. Memphis hasn’t been much better going 13-17, but 4-0 with Morant.

The total opened between 224.5 and 225.5 and remains there despite Morant and Leonard both being questionable for the game. The Clippers are 12-17-1 betting the Over this season, but 6-3 in its last nine.

The Grizzlies aren’t much better going 13-17 betting the Over, however they’re 2-2 with Morant in the lineup and if he plays, this will be the lowest total Memphis has had with him playing.