Pacers vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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21 December 2023

Pacers vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Ja Morant was lights out in his return from suspension on Tuesday and as per usual, he did almost all of that damage in the paint. The Pacers have the worst paint defense in the league and our NBA betting picks expect Ja to take advantage.

There’s not much more you could have asked of Ja Morant in his return from suspension, hitting the game-winning bucket at the buzzer to end the Memphis Grizzlies' five-game losing skid.

What does the mercurial guard have in store for an encore in his home debut against the Indiana Pacers as 4.5-point favorites in the NBA odds?

The Pacers battled out of their own funk, blasting the Hornets on Wednesday night to put an end to a four-game slide.

It’s a tasty matchup at point guard, where Tyrese Haliburton has moved into the top-tier point guard chatter, a place occupied by Morant before his off-court issues.

Read below for my free NBA picks for Pacers vs. Grizzlies.

Pacers vs Grizzlies odds

Pacers vs Grizzlies predictions

It took all of 24 minutes for Ja Morant to find his groove, as he played his first game since the first round of last year’s NBA Playoffs, with the Memphis Grizzlies squeezing out a 115-113 win over New Orleans.

And though he looked gassed at times in the second half, he showed exactly why his play made the Grizzlies one of the rising teams in the league. After scoring just seven points in the first half, he went to work in the final 24, finishing with a team-high 34 points on 12-for-24 shooting along with eight assists and six rebounds.

He did much of that damage in the paint, where he made eight of his 11 shots at the rim (72.7%). His second-most attempts came in the floater range, shooting 4-for-7 in the 5-9 foot range.

Not surprisingly, his outside shot was not sharp, missing all five 3-point attempts. That isn’t part of Morant’s game (yet) as his best year from distance was just a 34.4% clip.

That's why the books might be a little too optimistic about his 3-point shooting prop against the Indiana Pacers, setting the total at 1.5 makes.

Indiana might have the worst 3-point shooting defense in the NBA, letting teams hit at an absurd 39.5%, but they also have a Swiss cheese interior defense.

The Pacers allow teams to score an average of 62.2 points per game in the paint, the worst mark in basketball. They’re the only team above that 60-point mark with all but one other team — the woeful Wizards — below 57 paint points allowed per contest.

Ja won’t need to hit two triples, because he’ll be getting to the lane any time he wants.

My best bet: Ja Morant Under 1.5 made threes (-105 at DraftKings)

Pacers vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Ja Morant Under 1.5 made threes

Desmond Bane Over 3.5 made threes

Tyrese Haliburton Over 11.5 assists

Let’s keep things rolling in our same-game parlay with Morant’s backcourt mate Desmond Bane, who’s been tearing it up from distance so Morant won’t have to.

Bane looked just fine in the same space as Morant, starting slowly but finishing with 21 points in 35 minutes of work. He again did some damage from downtown, hitting 3-for-9, making it now the 10th straight game with 3+ triples, going Over this 3.5-make mark five times over that stretch.

He's hitting at a crisp 38% from three this year — and that’s his career low, shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc in each of his first three seasons. That number can only climb as the defense begins to clog the paint to stop those explosive Morant drives to the rim.

The Pacers might lead the league in scoring, but they ooze points, surrendering 126.5 points per game, trailing only the lowly Wizards for the league’s worst total. Bane should have every opportunity to crush this number.

Let’s end with Haliburton, who's coming off a 19-point, 13-assist, 3-rebound effort in a 144-113 demolition of the Hornets. He finished behind James Harden for the assist crown a season ago, averaging 10.4 dimes, but has upped that number to a league-best 11.9 this season.

He’s been dynamite in December, averaging 12.2 assists, and has posted 11+ dimes in seven of his last eight games. In a chance to size himself up against Morant, expect Haliburton to have a big game.

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Pacers vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

The Pacers have been listed as long as 5.5-point underdogs, but most books have settled in at the 4.5-point line.

Indiana is 13-12-0 against the spread on the year, but a notable 4-2-0 ATS with a rest disadvantage, which they have coming into Thursday.

Memphis is tied for the fewest home wins in the NBA with a 1-11 record — though this is all pre-Ja, something to consider if you’re basing your bet on the Grizzlies’ 3-9-0 ATS mark at home.

From now to the end of the regular season, expect to see outrageous totals set for these Pacers games. This total goes as high as 247.5 points after opening at 245.5.

The Pacers have an Over record of 19-6-0, while the Grizzlies have seen the Over go 10-16-0 in their games.

Pacers vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Grizzlies have beaten up on teams playing the second night of back-to-backs, winning 11 straight at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Grizzlies.

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