Grizzlies vs Nets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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04 March 2024

Grizzlies vs Nets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Brooklyn Nets host the Memphis Grizzlies and I would have said this is an NBA matchup only a bettor could love just a few days ago, but I’ll give the Nets their due.

They’re on fire. Well, at least by their standards. The Nets have won three of their last four games, with two of those coming in important matchups against the Hawks. They're all of a sudden just two games behind the Hawks for the final play-in spot in the Eastern Conference.

The optimism isn’t as apparent on the Grizzlies’ sideline, who enters this matchup as banged up as ever and losers of five in a row. The NBA odds don’t like their chances either, setting them as nearly double-digit road underdogs for tonight’s matchup.

Does Brooklyn stay hot as a home favorite? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Nets.

Grizzlies vs Nets odds

Grizzlies vs Nets predictions

The Brooklyn Nets are on fire! Well... kind of, and they aren’t exactly scorching the nets in these victories.

Yes, the Nets have won three of their last four to pull within two games of the Hawks for the final play-in spot in the Eastern Conference. As noted, two of those wins came against the Hawks. The other? Over this same Memphis Grizzlies team of course, with the Nets cruising to a 111-86 win as slight 2.5-point road favorites.

So, as you quickly can tell this Brooklyn surge isn’t too impressive after all. Two wins against Trae Young-less Hawks and one against a Memphis team with more injuries than a network television medical show.

The overall numbers for the Nets aren’t pretty. Since the calendar has flipped over to 2024, Brooklyn ranks 26th in offensive rating and 22nd in effective field goal percentage. As a result, the Nets are putting up just 108 points per game over that stretch.

And say what you will about the Grizzlies, but they're still well-coached and continue to put in a high level of effort on the defensive end of the floor. Despite the struggles and injuries, the Grizz still rank 11th in defensive rating and 17th in opponent eFG%. That has me targeting an Under for a Nets player prop.

Mikal Bridges is the Nets' leading scorer at 21.2 points per game, but he has the lowest eFG% of his career. We’ll call that the Brooklyn effect, but he’s also been all or nothing when it comes to scoring.

Bridges is talented and capable of putting up big numbers; he scored 38 in Brooklyn's last win over the Hawks. However, his high in the six games prior was 21 points, and he only went for more than 15 once over that span. That includes Memphis holding him to 11 points on 4-for-10 shooting last Monday.

I’m betting the Grizzlies keep him below his point total once again.

My best bet: Mikal Bridges Under 22.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Grizzlies vs Nets same-game parlay

Mikal Bridges Under 22.5 points

Cam Johnson Under 16.5 points

Santi Aldama Over 1.5 made threes

Mikal Bridges isn’t the only Nets player getting a points boost because of the perceived awfulness of the Grizzlies. Cam Johnson, despite averaging 13.2 points per game, has a point total of 16.5.

He did light up the Hawks for 29 and 23, respectively, in the last two meetings, but like Bridges, Johnson hasn't been getting buckets consistently. He stayed below this number in his last seven games before the matchups with Atlanta, averaging 9.6 points. He went for 12 points in the last meeting with Memphis.

And while I think Brooklyn gets the win here at the end of the day, I’m not sure it will be as easy as the spread suggests. The Nets are also a sub-par defensive team, ranking 19th in defensive rating and 25th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

That has me looking at Santi Aldama’s made threes prop. Aldama is taking 5.1 threes per game since becoming a starter 18 games ago, hitting 35.1% of those attempts. His threes prop is sitting at 1.5 and our Covers Prop Projections have him hitting 2.1. Close this SGP out with the Over.

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Grizzlies vs Nets spread and Over/Under analysis

The Nets opened this NBA matchup as 9-point home favorites and have since been moved to 9.5. It’s pretty easy to see why.

The Grizzlies enter this matchup losers of five in a row, during which time they haven’t scored more than 101 points and are averaging 94.8 points per game. That includes a 111-86 loss as 2.5-point home underdogs to this same Nets team last Monday.

With that said, I’m uneasy laying those points with an inconsistent Nets team. Yes, the Grizzlies can’t score, but they do play defense, and they've covered five games in a row when underdogs of nine points or more. The Nets are just 2-2 SU when favored by 9+ points this season.

When it comes to the total, it's one of the lower ones you will see this season. It hit the board at 209.5 and the Under has been hammered, moving the number down to 205.5. Even at that lower number, I'd lean Under.

The Grizzlies rank dead last in the NBA in offensive rating but play good defense. The Nets offense has seemingly only clicked against bad defensive teams. These two teams combined for 197 points when they met last Monday.