Hawks vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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08 March 2024

Hawks vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Like most teams, the Atlanta Hawks are dealing with injury issues to key guys. One guy that's picked up the slack is Bogdan Bogdanovic and our NBA betting picks expect him to show his scoring touch vs. a vulnerable Grizzlies defense.

The injury-riddled Memphis Grizzlies are limping toward a useful draft pick, but they’ve shown signs of life this week and go for a third straight win as they host the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

Though the Grizzlies are still home underdogs in the NBA odds, they’re coming off a pair of road victories against the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers, and Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 30 points on his return in midweek.

Atlanta can’t match Memphis’ lengthy injury list but the visitors will be without Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu at FedExForum as they try to strengthen their grip on the final play-in spot.

Read on for my free NBA picks for Hawks vs Grizzlies on Friday, March 8.

Hawks vs Grizzlies odds

Hawks vs Grizzlies predictions

If you thought Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic might have a green light to dominate the offense once Trae Young was sidelined, it’s a flashing, neon light now that Jalen Johnson is set to miss out here too.

That’s a ton of shooting volume in street clothes for the Atlanta Hawks, and it puts a big burden on tonight’s starting backcourt. But that burden also means volume, and I’m picking Bogdanovic to cash in on extra touches against a Memphis Grizzlies team with some inexperienced defenders on the perimeter.

Bogdanovic had an efficient 23-point night against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, making eight of his 15 shots, including three triples, and I’m leaning into a repeat performance here by taking the Over on his points prop.

While Bogdanovic’s stat line is always going to rely heavily on his 3-point stroke, he’s on pace for a career-high with 16.6 ppg this season, despite some streaky stretches.

He’s had 13 or more field goal attempts in five of his last seven outings, and there’s a path to 15+ shots in Memphis given the Hawks’ injury woes.

The Grizzlies have stepped up defensively so far in March, holding their last three opponents under 110 points, but I expect some slippage tonight against Bogdanovic and an Atlanta team that’s shot 50% or better in consecutive games.

My best bet: Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)

Hawks vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 points

Vince Williams Jr. Over 5.5 assists

Grizzlies moneyline

I’m looking to the Grizzlies to fill out my SGP. Vince Williams Jr. has been a revelation this year after the injuries to Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, and Desmond Bane. In just his second season, he’s done a serviceable job running a Memphis offense that’s been put together on the fly.

I’m taking the Over on his assists prop tonight. Williams Jr. is coming off a nine-assist night against the 76ers on Wednesday and he’s had six or more dimes in nine of his last 12 games. With Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama as scoring outlets, Williams Jr. should have more chances to flash his playmaking skills.

The Grizzlies have held their own against playoff-caliber teams lately, including wins over the Minnesota Timberwolves and Milwaukee Bucks and a narrow loss to the L.A. Clippers. I see just enough offense to grind out an upset win here.

Though Memphis has struggled at home this season, I’m not put off by the hosts’ 7-24 record at FedExForum, especially with Jackson Jr. heating up again, and I’ve been burned lately by Atlanta’s erratic road form.

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Hawks vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite an uneven run, Atlanta enters as the favorite in this spot, perhaps with the expectation that the visitors will be buoyed by encouraging wins this week against the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Still, the Hawks are a miserable 21-41 ATS this season, and they’ve lost their last three meetings against the Grizzlies, including a 125-119 defeat in December.

The Grizzlies are floundering at 22-41, but they’ve won their last two games and they’re 7-3 ATS in their past 10 contests.

While the hosts hit the Over in both outings this week – admittedly, on some low totals – there’s every reason to expect a cagier battle tonight with so much star power on the injury report. A line of 215.5 suggests as much.

The Hawks have hit the Under in seven of their last 10 games and their bench could be a non-factor offensively here if De’Andre Hunter moves into the starting line-up to replace Johnson.