Guardians-Rangers prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, July 14

The second half of the 2023 MLB season begins tonight and the Cleveland Guardians will return to action with a three-game weekend series against the Texas Rangers. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington. Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.56 ERA) will start for the Guardians while Jon Gray (6-5, 3.29 ERA) will step on the hill for the Rangers.

Texas enters as a -140 favorite on the moneyline over at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Cleveland is a +120 underdog. The run total is set at 8.5.

Guardians-Rangers picks: Friday, July 14

Injury report

Guardians

Out: SP Triston McKenzie (elbow), SP Cal Quantrill (shoulder)

Rangers

Out: RP Brett Martin (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Aaron Civale vs. Jon Gray

Civale found a groove right before the All-Star break, posting four straight quality starts for the Guardians. He was particularly excellent against the Royals last Friday, striking out nine while yielding just two hits in seven innings. He’s been comfortable on the road so far this year, posting a 1.25 ERA through 21.2 innings away from Progressive Field.

Gray hit a wall right before the break, losing three straight starts and yielding at least four earned runs in three of his last four outings. He’s struggled to keep runners off base in his last two starts in particular, giving up a combined 16 hits and five walks in those outings. He also hasn’t particularly thrived at home this year, posting a 2-3 record with a 4.27 ERA at Globe Life Field.

Over/Under pick

Texas is the third-most over-friendly team in the Majors but it really struggled offensively right before the break. I think it will take a few games for the Rangers bats to catch fire again and it won’t happen against a solid starter tonight. I’d take the under here.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

Both teams ended the first half of the season differently, as Cleveland won four of its last six outings while Texas dropped four of its last five. I expect that to carry over into tonight as I trust Civale to get the job done on the road more than I trust Gray at home. Take the Guardians.