Haskell 2023 fair odds: It’s time for this contender to shine
Coming up with a plan to bet the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park involves not only handicapping the race itself but also the bettors.
Monmouth morning-line oddsmaker Brad Thomas made Arabian Knight the 5-2 choice with Kentucky Derby winner Mage at 3-1. However, Monmouth’s partner in fixed-odds wagering, MonmouthBets, opened Mage as the 2-1 favorite with Arabian Knight at 5-2.
What their actual odds are is likely immaterial for my purposes. Each will be shorter than 3-1, which means I will absolutely get my 2-1 fair odds on Tapit Trice in this spot.
I know, I know. Tapit Trice had no excuse to run as poorly as he did in the Kentucky Derby, and he flattened out after making what looked like a winning move when third in the Belmont Stakes. But I just cannot shake what we saw from him in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1). That was a superior animal, and although Verifying disappointed after setting the pace in the Kentucky Derby, he did come back to run a good second behind Disarm in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) before winning the Indiana Derby (G3).
Tapit Trice’s Ragozin Speed Figures are as fast as Mage’s and clearly faster than Arabian Knight’s – and everyone else’s in the field. That makes him the obvious play as the third choice, and based on other chatter, I would not be shocked if he is closer in price to Extra Añejo than Arabian Knight and Mage.
Mage is a wild card for me. If bettors go ham on Arabian Knight, then Mage could offer marginal value. Tapit Trice is so clearly the play, though, that even if Mage is at that 5-2 fair-odds line, the only thing I would want to do with that is hook him up with Tapit Trice in the exotics.
The others just are not fast enough. They certainly could step up as 3-year-olds are wont to do, but the price just won’t be there.
From a wagering standpoint, it’s Tapit Trice to win, and depending on what the other races look like in the horizontal sequences involving the Haskell, I’d feel comfortable using Mage as a B. Same goes with exotic plays based on will pays.
